Energy Wholesale Market Review, 2 April 2021

Headlines

Last week was largely bullish GB for gas and power markets, with some exceptions in longer-dated contracts across gas and power. Day-ahead gas rose 9.7% to 51.00p/th, supported by gradually declining temperatures as the week progressed and delayed LNG tanker arrivals into GB. Similarly, day-ahead power jumped 19.4% to £57.00/MWh, following the gas curve higher and benefitting from periods of reduced wind generation throughout the week. Most seasonal gas contracts increased last week, up by 0.3% on average, as winter 21 and summer 22 gas climbed 1.1% and 0.2% respectively, lifting to 55.08p/th and 41.48p/th. Most seasonal power contracts gained last week, up on average by 1.4%, Winter 21 and summer 22 power moved 0.9% and 0.2% higher to £65.50/MWh and £50.10/MWh, respectively. Brent crude oil prices rose 1.4% to average $64.00/bl, last week. Disruption on the Suez Canal continued to support prices last week, with tankers continuing to be diverted away from their usual shipping routes. However, the disruption was cleared mid-week, capping any further price rises as a result. EU ETS carbon prices lifted 0.8% to average €41.64/t. Gains on the Brent crude market fed through to carbon prices last week, and are still relatively high when compared to recent months. Similarly, cooler weather forecasts for across parts of Europe next week will support prices.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power rose 19.4% to £57.00/MWh, following the gas curve higher and benefitting from periods of reduced wind generation as the week continued.
  • May 21 power climbed 2.3% to £56.70/MWh and June 21 power increased 1.9% to £57.75/MWh.
  • Q321 power moved 2.3% higher to £57.20/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 contract rose 0.6% to £57.80/MWh, 42.3% higher than the same time last year (£40.61/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Baseload electricity Forward curve comparison 2 April 2021

Annual April Contract

Baseload electricity Annual April contract 2 April 2021

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power was down 10.2% to £60.00/MWh, counteracting trends observed from its baseload counterpart.
  • May 21 peak power gained 2.9% to £61.12/MWh, and June 21 peak power increased 0.8% to £63.25/MWh.
  • Annual October 21 peak power lost 1.6% to £65.59/MWh.
  • This is 41.1% lower than the same time last year (£46.50/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Peak electricity Forward curve comparison 2 April 2021

Annual April contract

Peak electricity Annual April contract 2 April 2021

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power contracts 2 April 2021

Seasonal baseload power curve

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power curve 2 April 2021

  • Most seasonal power contracts rose last week, up on average by 1.4%.
  • Winter 21 and summer 22 lifted 0.9% and 0.2% respectively, rising to £65.50/MWh and £50.10/MWh.
  • Most seasonal peak power contracts increased last week, up 0.6% on average.
  • Winter 21 and summer 22 peak power increased 1.6% and 1.5% to £75.42/MWh and £55.76/MWh, respectively.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

Commodity price movements Oil and coal  2 April 2021

Carbon

Commodity price movements Carbon  2 April 2021

  • Brent crude oil prices rose 1.4% to average $64.00/bl, last week.
  • Disruption on the Suez Canal continued to support prices last week, with tankers continuing to be diverted away from their usual shipping routes. However, the disruption was cleared mid-week, capping any further price rises as a result.
  • The return of additional and stricter lockdown measures in some major European economics also weighed on prices. Similarly, case numbers rising in these select countries has prompted demand concerns from the Continent.
  • EU ETS carbon prices rose 0.8% last week to average €41.64/t.
  • Gains on the Brent crude market fed through to carbon prices last week, and are still relatively high when compared to recent months. Similarly, cooler weather forecasts for across parts of Europe next week will support prices.
  • Prices will still continue to feel the effects of rising Coronavirus infection rates on the Continent, fuelling demand uncertainty.
Wholesale price snapshot 

Wholesale price snapshot 2 April 2021

Posted by TEAM on 6 April 2021
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