Energy Wholesale Market Review, 2 April 2021

• Day-ahead power rose 19.4% to £57.00/MWh, following the gas curve higher and benefitting from periods of reduced wind generation as the week continued.
• May 21 power climbed 2.3% to £56.70/MWh and June 21 power increased 1.9% to £57.75/MWh.

• Q321 power moved 2.3% higher to £57.20/MWh.
• The annual October 21 contract rose 0.6% to £57.80/MWh, 42.3% higher than the same time last year (£40.61/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual April Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was down 10.2% to £60.00/MWh, counteracting trends observed from its baseload counterpart.
• May 21 peak power gained 2.9% to £61.12/MWh, and June 21 peak power increased 0.8% to £63.25/MWh.

• Annual October 21 peak power lost 1.6% to £65.59/MWh.
• This is 41.1% lower than the same time last year (£46.50/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual April contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Most seasonal power contracts rose last week, up on average by 1.4%.
• Winter 21 and summer 22 lifted 0.9% and 0.2% respectively, rising to £65.50/MWh and £50.10/MWh.

• Most seasonal peak power contracts increased last week, up 0.6% on average.
• Winter 21 and summer 22 peak power increased 1.6% and 1.5% to £75.42/MWh and £55.76/MWh, respectively.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil prices rose 1.4% to average $64.00/bl, last week.
• Disruption on the Suez Canal continued to support prices last week, with tankers continuing to be diverted away from their usual shipping routes. However, the disruption was cleared mid-week, capping any further price rises as a result.
• The return of additional and stricter lockdown measures in some major European economics also weighed on prices. Similarly, case numbers rising in these select countries has prompted demand concerns from the Continent.

• EU ETS carbon prices rose 0.8% last week to average €41.64/t.
• Gains on the Brent crude market fed through to carbon prices last week, and are still relatively high when compared to recent months. Similarly, cooler weather forecasts for across parts of Europe next week will support prices.
• Prices will still continue to feel the effects of rising Coronavirus infection rates on the Continent, fuelling demand uncertainty.

Wholesale price snapshot