Energy Wholesale Market Review, 2 October 2020

• Day-ahead power fell 6.4% to £44.00/MWh, amid high levels of wind generation for much of the week.
• November 20 dropped 4.2% to £49.95/MWh and December 20 power slipped 0.9% to £50.50/MWh.

• Q121 power lost 1.7% to £51.50MWh.
• The annual April 21 contract slipped 1.5% to £46.14/MWh, 3.6% lower than the same time last month (£47.86/MWh), and 5.0% lower than the same time last year (£48.58/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power went down 4.8% to £49.50/MWh.
• November 20 peak power rose 1.7% to £64.32/MWh, and December 20 peak power lifted 0.3% to £60.95/MWh.

• The annual April 21 contract remained static at £52.54/MWh.
• This is 4.5% lower than the same time last year (£55.00/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Seasonal power contracts declined this week, down 1.8% on average.
• Summer 21 power moved 1.1% lower to £42.69/MWh, while winter 21 power dropped 1.8% to £49.58/MWh.

• Seasonal peak power contracts climbed 0.3% on average.
• Summer 21 peak power lifted 0.5% to £47.89/MWh and winter 21 peak power slipped 0.5% to £57.19/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil declined 1.7% to average $41.19/bl this week, with the continuation of demand growth concerns amid a second wave of COVID-19.
• On Friday, prices dropped below $40.0/bl, reacting to news that President Trump had tested positive for COVID-19 and a significant increase in Libyan oil production.
• In contrast, API 2 coal gained 1.6% to average $60.08/t.

• EU ETS carbon lost 1.0% to average €26.63/t.
• A general sentiment of a looming ‘hard Brexit’ weighed on prices this week, as concerns continue to circulate how the structure of EU ETS carbon trading will continue to function when the UK ultimately removes itself from the European Union. Similarly, reductions in oil prices experienced this week has weighed on the carbon price.

Wholesale price snapshot