Energy Wholesale Market Review, 20 December 2019

Headlines

The majority of baseload power and gas contracts increased this week. Day-ahead gas was an exception and remained the same at 32.50p/th, following well balanced supply and demand. Day-ahead power fell 13.4% to £36.45/MWh, with prices driven down by rising wind generation towards the end of the week. January 20 gas was down 0.1% at 36.35p/th, and February 20 gas decreased 0.6% to 36.95p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts rose this week, up by 4.8% on average, while both summer 20 and winter 20 gas increased 1.7% and 4.1% respectively, lifting to 33.69p/th and 46.00p/th. All seasonal power contracts lifted this week, up on average by 3.4%, as summer 20 and winter 20 climbed 1.8% and 2.2% respectively, rising to £42.15/MWh and £50.80/MWh. Brent crude oil rose by 2.4% to $65.80/bl, amid expectations of increased global demand in 2020. EU ETS carbon gained by 2.6% to €25.58/t. Similar to the oil market, carbon prices also reached a three-month high during the week, hitting €26.55/t on 19 December. API 2 coal decreased 1.7% to average $58.70/t. On 20 December, prices fell to $57.65/t, their lowest level since mid-September 2016.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power fell 13.4% to £36.45/MWh.
  • January 20 power climbed 1.2% to £45.28/MWh and February 20 power increased 1.5% to £46.19/MWh.
  • Q120 power moved 1.2% higher to £45.14/MWh.
  • The Annual April 20 contract rose 2.0% to £46.48/MWh, 17.5% lower than the same time last year (£56.31/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Baseload electricity Forward curve comparison 20 December 2019

Annual October Contract

Baseload electricity Annual April contract 20 December 2019

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power was up 9.0% to £42.75/MWh.
  • January 20 peak power declined 3.3% to £51.26/MWh, and February 20 peak power increased 3.9% to £53.51/MWh.
  • The Annual April 20 peak power lost 1.8% to 51.85/MWh.
  • This is 17.7% lower than the same time last year (62.98/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Peak electricity Forward curve comparison 20 December 2019

Annual October contract

Peak electricity Annual April contract 20 December 2019

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power contracts 20 December 2019

Seasonal baseload power curve

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power curve 20 December 2019

  • All seasonal power contracts increased last week, up on average by 3.4%.
  • Summer 20 and winter 20 gained 1.8% and 2.2% respectively, rising to £42.15/MWh and £50.80/MWh.
  • All seasonal peak power contracts increased this week, up 2.8% on average.
  • Summer 20 and winter 20 peak power increased 1.1% and 2.4% respectively, falling to £45.80/MWh and £57.90/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

Commodity price movements Oil and Coal 20 December 2019

Carbon

Commodity price movements Carbon 20 December 2019

  • Brent crude oil gained 2.4% to average $65.80/bl.
  • Prices rose to a three-month high of $66.50/bl on 20 December.
  • Oil prices were pushed higher by expectations of increased global demand in 2020, amid cautious optimism surrounding the “Phase 1” trade deal between the US and China. Prices were further supported by US EIA data which showed a 1.1mn barrel decline in US crude stocks last week.
  • API 2 coal decreased 1.7% to average $58.70/t. On 20 December, prices fell to $57.65/t, their lowest level since mid-September 2016.
  • EU ETS carbon climbed 2.6% to average €25.58/t. Similar to the oil market, carbon prices also reached a three-month high during the week, hitting €26.55/t on 19 December.
  • Prices were supported by a lack of supply in the market, following a pause in auctions over the Christmas and New Year period. The final auction of the year was held on 16 December, with the next scheduled to take place on 7 January 2020.
Wholesale price snapshot

Wholesale price snapshot 20 December 2019

Posted by TEAM on 20 December 2019
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