Energy Wholesale Market Review, 20 September 2021

• Day-ahead power rose 93.0% to £330/MWh, following the continuation of lower wind output in the week and simultaneous tighter system margins.
• October 21 power climbed 23.1% at £165/MWh and November 21 power increased 21.0% to £173/MWh.

• Q421 power moved 21.8% higher to £169.9/MWh.
• The annual October 21 contract rose 13.8% to £127.5/MWh, 166.5% higher than the same time last year (£47.85/MWh).

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was up 94.6% to £395.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart higher.
• October 21 peak power gained 61.3% at £225/MWh, and November 21 peak power increased 19.3% to £197.09/MWh.

• The annual October 21 peak power rose 12.4% to £145.5/MWh.
• This is 169.6% higher than the same time last year (53.97/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 6.2%.
• Winter 21 and summer 22 climbed 19.6% and 4.7% respectively, rising to £165.00/MWh and £90.00/MWh.

• All seasonal peak power contracts rose this week, up 8.8% on average.
• Winter 21 and summer 22 peak power increased 18.0% and 3.1% respectively, rising to £190.00/MWh and £100.99/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude prices rebounded 3.3% to $74.51/bl this week, maintaining a strong price point in comparison to a year prior. Prices are now over 80% higher than the same time a year ago.
• It was a largely bullish week for the Brent crude market, with minimal downside.
• Prices gained support from multiple drivers, the first of which was lowering US crude stock volumes in the US, supporting a tighter supply picture.

• The UK ETS fell 0.1% to average £53.70/t this week. The EU ETS also saw losses, down 3.4% to average €60.31/t.
• The return of higher auction volumes as we progress through September has seen prices begin to retreat slightly this week.
• Stronger wind generation expected will ease the demand for fossil fuel generation, dampening prices as a result.

Wholesale price snapshot