Energy Wholesale Market Review, 21 February 2020

• Day-ahead power rose 25.8% to £32.90/MWh to recover from record-low’s last week.
• March 20 power climbed 4.0% to £33.15/MWh and April 20 power increased 4.0% to £33.40/MWh.

• Q220 power moved 2.7% higher to £34.05/MWh.
• The Annual April 20 contract rose 1.3% to £39.22/MWh, 23.2% lower than the same time last year (£51.08/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was up 3.2% to £35.80/MWh, £2.90/MWh above its baseload counterpart.
• March 20 peak power gained 4.7% to £37.49/MWh, and April 20 peak power increased 2.7% to £44.95/MWh.

• The Annual April 20 peak power contract lost 2.7% to 44.95/MWh.
• This is 21.8% lower than the same time last year (57.46/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 1.9%.
• Summer 20 and winter 20 gained 2.5% and 0.3% respectively, rising to £34.36/MWh and £44.07/MWh.

• All seasonal peak power contracts rose this week, up £2.9% on average.
• Summer 20 and winter 20 peak power increased 3.7% and 1.9% respectively, falling to £38.63/MWh and £51.27/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil rose 4.9% to average $57.68/bl, marking the first weekly increase of the commodity since early January, though prices dropped on Friday.
• Market fears over the impact of the coronavirus on Brent prices have eased in recent days, with the number of fresh cases of the virus reported daily decreasing.
• A lower than inspected rise in US crude inventories helped to lift prices this week.
• Focus also increased on weakened output from Libya, which dropped to an estimated 122,000 bpd.
• API 2 coal saw small losses this week, falling to average $59.62/t. Coal prices fluctuated this week on uncertainty of demand in China and increasing output from renewable sources (largely wind).

• EU ETS carbon increased 5.9% to average €24.98/t to continue recent momentum.
• Fewer EU auctions this week and a general rise in other markets lifted EU ETS prices to a near 2-month high of €25.72/t on 20 February.
• The high share of renewable generation in the generation mix due to high wind has pressed on prices in recent weeks.

Wholesale price snapshot