Energy Wholesale Market Review, 22 May 2020

• Day-ahead power fell 0.9% to £21.50/MWh, despite trading as low as £12/MWh midweek as a result of high wind generation forecasts.
• June 20 power slipped 4.2% at £24.25/MWh and July 20 power increased 0.6% to £26.00/MWh.

• Q320 power moved 3.7% lower to £26.99/MWh.
• The Annual October 20 contract lost 0.5% to £39.05/MWh, 24.7% lower than the same time last year (£51.88/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was down 9.5% to £21.50/MWh.
• June 20 peak power declined 1.5% to £27.87/MWh, and July 20 peak power decreased 0.2% to £29.22/MWh.

• The annual October 20 peak power lost 2.8% to 45.32/MWh.
• This is 22.1% lower than the same time last year (58.14/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Seasonal power contracts were mixed this week, up on average by 1.2%.
• Winter 20 power decreased 1.5% to £41.03/MWh, while summer 21 expanded 0.6% to £37.07/MWh.

• All seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, up 3.6% on average.
• Winter 20 and summer 21 peak power increased 1.7% and 4.1% respectively, falling to £48.53/MWh and £42.11/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil continued last week’s momentum to rise 15.5% last week, averaging $35.02/bl, despite falling slightly towards the end of the week.
• The gains made by oil prices this week have largely been attributed to the easing of lockdown restrictions across the globe resulting in a rise in demand.
• Prices were also driven higher midweek by the announcement that US crude inventories had dropped for the second consecutive week, having previously recorded 15 straight weeks of rising stockpiles.
• Prices tailed off towards the end of the week, finishing just above $34/bl. Rising US-China tensions weighed on prices as doubts remain over the speed of demand recovery.

• EU ETS carbon prices rose 8.9% this week as price gains from limited auction supply were extended by rising oil prices.
• Several bank holidays across the continent saw no EUA auctions from 21-25 May.
• API 2 coal prices slipped to $52.60/t as coal prices continued to show minimal movements.

Wholesale price snapshot