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Energy Wholesale Market Review, 22 November 2019

Headlines

Most power and gas contracts rose this week, with a few seasonal contracts and day-ahead power being exceptions. Day ahead gas rose 8.8% to 42.0p/th as lower LNG send-out saw the gas market undersupplied towards the end of the week. Day ahead power dropped 14.2% to average £45.5/MWh as wind generation surged midweek. December 19 gas was up 3.6% at 42.1p/th, and January 20 gas increased 1.7% to 44.3p/th. All seasonal contracts boosted last week, up by 1.7% on average, while both summer 20 and sinter 20 gas increased 2.4% and 1.3% respectively, lifting to 39.6p/th and 49.4p/th. Most seasonal power contracts increased last week up by 1.5%. Summer 20 and winter 20 power contracts climbed 2.5% and 1.5% respectively, rising to £45.4/MWh and £52.5/MWh. Brent crude oil inched up 0.6% to average $62.2/bl with prices changing on varying on mixed reports of US crude inventory levels. EU ETS carbon fell by 2.5% to €23.8/t as price changes and activity was minimal again this week as the EU parliament will vote on whether to declare a climate emergency. API 2 coal prices reversed last week’s gains, rising 0.8% to $63.7/t.

Baseload electricity
Day-ahead peak power fell 22.8% to £50.0/MWh, with high wind generation midweek. December 19 power climbed 1.4% at £47.5/MWh and January 20 power increased 1.2% to £50.4/MWh.		Q120 power moved 1.0% higher to £49.8/MWh. The Annual April 20 contract rose 2.0% to £49.0/MWh, 10.2% lower than the same time last year (£54.48/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual October Contract
Peak electricity
Day-ahead peak power fell 22.8% to £50.0/MWh, reflecting the drop in baseload power prices. December 19 peak power was up 1.7% at £53.8/MWh, and January 20 peak power climbed 1.2% to £57.5/MWh.		The Annual April 20 peak power gained 1.7% to 54.3/MWh. This is 11.7% lower than the same time this year (61.5/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual October contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts		Seasonal baseload power curve
All seasonal power contracts increased this week, up 1.5%. Summer 20 and winter 20 power lifted 2.5% and 1.5% respectively, rising to £45.4/MWh and £52.5/MWh.		Seasonal peak power contracts raised by 1.4% on average. Summer 20 and winter 20 peak power gained 2.4% and 1.1% respectively, rising to £49.3/MWh and £59.4/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal		Carbon
Brent crude oil inched up 0.6% to average $62.2/bl this week. Prices are currently 2.8% lower than at the same time this year. Reports of high build of US crude inventory levels early in the week initially weighed on prices, though they recovered on later reports that stocks increased less than originally reported. API 2 coal prices reversed last week’s gains, rising 0.8% to $63.7/t.		EU ETS carbon fell by 2.5% to average €23.8/t. Price changes and activity was minimal again this week. The EU parliament will vote this week on whether to declare a climate emergency. If voted for, it will pressure the European Commission to act with more urgency on carbon emissions.
Wholesale price snaphot