Headlines
All contracts increased this week, with the exception of day-ahead power. Day-ahead power decreased 4.5% to £43.75/MWh, owing to increased wind outturn as the week progressed coupled with forecasts of strong wind generation across the weekend. The month-ahead contract (November 20) gained 2.7% to £51.25/MWh. Similarly, December 20 power increased 2.2% to average £52.25/MWh. Countering trends seen in the day-ahead contract, all other seasonal power contracts experienced growth in comparison with the week prior. The majority of gas contracts moved higher this week attributed predominately to a general decline in temperatures as we progress further towards the winter months. As such, day-ahead gas lifted 6.2% to 43.00p/th. November 20 gas rose 8.8% to 44.38p/th, with December 20 gas also rising 9.0% to 46.85p/th. Summer 21 gas lifted 5.6% to 36.87p/th with the winter 21 contract lifting 2.9% to 44.35p/th. Brent crude oil marginally rose this week, seeing an increase of 0.3% to average $42.39/bl. The Brent crude oil price maintained a relatively stable position above $42.00/bl, with conflicting factors such as ongoing supply disruption in Norway and increasing levels of oil in US inventories, preventing major price shifts in either direction. EU ETS carbon dropped by a further 3.2% to average €24.47/t for the week.
Baseload electricity | | |
- Day-ahead power fell 4.5% to £43.75/MWh, owing to increased wind generation expected towards the end of the week.
- November 20 power climbed 2.7% to £51.25/MWh and December 20 power increased 2.2% to £52.25/MWh.
| | - Q121 power moved 1.6% higher to £53.5/MWh.
- The annual April 21 contract rose 3.1% to £48.11/MWh, 0.9% lower than the same time last year (£48.54/MWh).
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Forward curve comparison | | Annual October Contract |
Peak electricity | | |
- Day-ahead peak power was up 5.9% to £51.50/MWh.
- November 20 peak power declined 1.6% to £58.28/MWh, and December 20 peak power decreased 0.7% to £58.42/MWh.
| | - The annual April 21 peak power lost 1.0% to £52.79/MWh.
- This is 4.0% lower than the same time last year (£55.00/MWh).
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Forward curve comparison
| | Annual October contract
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Seasonal power prices | | |
Seasonal baseload power contracts | | Seasonal baseload power curve |
- All seasonal baseload power contracts rose this week, up on average by 1.5%.
- Summer 21 and winter 21 power gained 3.9% and 2.3% respectively, rising to £45.16/MWh and £51.05/MWh.
| | - Most seasonal peak power contracts increased this week, up 0.4% on average.
- Summer 21 and winter 21 peak power increased 1.8% and 0.3% to £48.62/MWh and £56.96/MWh, respectively.
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Commodity price movements | | |
Oil and Coal | | Carbon
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- Brent crude oil marginally rose this week, seeing an increase of 0.3% to average $42.39/bl. The Brent crude oil price maintained relative stability above $42.00/bl for the entirety of the week, despite fresh restrictions imposed across many economies this week.
- The Brent crude oil price continued to draw on its recent resilience, supported by OPEC members not ruling out supply cuts in an attempt to provide a boost to prices.
- While prices remain stable, the market is anticipating a notable decline amid concerns of rising case numbers of the Coronavirus in the coming weeks.
- API 2 coal reversed the previous week’s decline, lifting 1.3% to average $59.50/t for the week.
| | - EU ETS carbon fell again this week. Prices dropped by a further 3.2% to average €24.47/t for the week.
- The drop in prices this week is symptomatic of the general sentiment observed across many global commodity markets, as the threat of Coronavirus disruption remains.
- Compounding this week’s decline was also a general concern of a ‘hard Brexit’ and uncertainties in future carbon trading arrangements for the UK. No firm route forward has been agreed despite the 1 January back-stop date drawing closer.
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Wholesale price snapshot |