Energy Wholesale Market Review, 24 September 2021

Headlines

Movements in gas and power markets varied this week, but generally continue to hold onto the more elevated price points set in recent weeks. In support of this, day-ahead gas rose 3.4% to 166.00p/th, despite much stronger Norwegian gas supply into GB and higher domestic production. Gains on the day-ahead gas contract can however be partially attributed to the continued undersupply of European gas in storage. Day-ahead power fell 58.2% to £138/MWh, with losses driven by significant growth in wind outturn across much of this week, particularly by comparison to previous weeks where outturn has been incredibly low, squeezing supply margins as a result. October 21 gas was up 8.6% at 175.42p/th, and November 21 gas increased 10.1% to 183.37p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 9.4% on average, while both winter 21 and summer 22 gas increased 9.4% and 11.2% respectively, lifting to 180.10p/th and 91.99p/th. Seasonal power contracts saw similar movements, up on average by 9.3%, as winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 13.3% and 8.9% respectively, rising to £187.00/MWh and £98.00/MWh.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power fell 58.2% to £138/MWh, driven by strong and more consistent wind generation throughout the week.
  • October 21 power climbed 13.3% at £187/MWh and November 21 power increased 15.0% to £199/MWh.
  • Q421 power moved 17.8% higher to £200.11/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 contract rose 11.8% to £142.5/MWh, 200.3% higher than the same time last year (£47.46/MWh).
Forward Curve Comparison

 

Annual October Contract

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power was down 61.8% to £151.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
  • October 21 peak power declined 12.0% at £198/MWh, and November 21 peak power decreased 3.6% to £190/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 peak power rose 9.8% to £159.82/MWh
  • This is 201.4% higher than the same time last year (53.03/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

 

Annual October contract

 

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

 

Seasonal baseload power curve

 

  • All seasonal power contracts grew this week, up on average by 9.3%.
  • Winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 13.3% and 8.9% respectively, rising to £187.00/MWh and £98.00/MWh.
  • Most seasonal peak power contracts also saw gains, up 3.5% on average.
  • Winter 21 and summer 22 peak power increased 13.5% and 3.0% respectively, rising to £215.63/MWh and £104.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

 

Carbon

  • Brent crude prices rose again this week, up 1.4% to $75.56/bl, maintaining a strong price point by comparison to a year prior. Prices are now over 80% higher than the same time a year ago.
  • Similarly, supply disruption continues in the Gulf of Mexico, in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida and other strong storm events in the area, fueling further market tightness, as seen in the last fortnight.
  • It was a mixed week for carbon markets this week. UK ETS markets experienced price rises, up 6.2% on the week prior to average £57.01/t, also reaching a record high since the scheme’s inception back on 19 May, at £60.75/t on 24 September.
  • The EU ETS opposed these bullish trends however, easing 0.2% to €60.21/t.
  • Stronger wind generation expected will lessen the demand for fossil fuel generation, dampening prices as a result
Wholesale price snapshot 

 

Posted by TEAM on 24 September 2021
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