Energy Wholesale Market Review, 24 September 2021

• Day-ahead power fell 58.2% to £138/MWh, driven by strong and more consistent wind generation throughout the week.
• October 21 power climbed 13.3% at £187/MWh and November 21 power increased 15.0% to £199/MWh.

• Q421 power moved 17.8% higher to £200.11/MWh.
• The annual October 21 contract rose 11.8% to £142.5/MWh, 200.3% higher than the same time last year (£47.46/MWh).

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was down 61.8% to £151.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
• October 21 peak power declined 12.0% at £198/MWh, and November 21 peak power decreased 3.6% to £190/MWh.

• The annual October 21 peak power rose 9.8% to £159.82/MWh
• This is 201.4% higher than the same time last year (53.03/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal power contracts grew this week, up on average by 9.3%.
• Winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 13.3% and 8.9% respectively, rising to £187.00/MWh and £98.00/MWh.

• Most seasonal peak power contracts also saw gains, up 3.5% on average.
• Winter 21 and summer 22 peak power increased 13.5% and 3.0% respectively, rising to £215.63/MWh and £104.00/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude prices rose again this week, up 1.4% to $75.56/bl, maintaining a strong price point by comparison to a year prior. Prices are now over 80% higher than the same time a year ago.
• Similarly, supply disruption continues in the Gulf of Mexico, in the aftermath of Hurricane Ida and other strong storm events in the area, fueling further market tightness, as seen in the last fortnight.

• It was a mixed week for carbon markets this week. UK ETS markets experienced price rises, up 6.2% on the week prior to average £57.01/t, also reaching a record high since the scheme’s inception back on 19 May, at £60.75/t on 24 September.
• The EU ETS opposed these bullish trends however, easing 0.2% to €60.21/t.
• Stronger wind generation expected will lessen the demand for fossil fuel generation, dampening prices as a result

Wholesale price snapshot