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Energy Wholesale Market Review, 25 February 2022

Headlines

This week has represented a significant upward shift in gas and power prices for near-term contracts as well as further along the forward curve, primarily in response to news surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Subsequently, day-ahead gas rose 50.0% to 255.00p/th, following the aforementioned news war has broken out in Ukraine, fuelling future gas supply concerns from Russia, which contributes a significant proportion of natural gas to the continent. Day-ahead power rose 72.0% to £227.00/MWh, taking direction from the bullish movements in gas contracts across the board, in what represents a relatively unprecedented political event in Europe. Subsequently, March 22 gas was up 51.1% at 259.66p/th, and April 22 gas increased 50.9% to 259.96p/th. Nearly all seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 31.4% on average, with summer 22 and winter 22 gas increasing 49.9% and 46.6% respectively, lifting to 258.67p/th and 265.91p/th. Seasonal power contracts rose this week sharing similar growth to their seasonal gas counterparts, up on average by 28.0%. Summer 22 and winter 22 expanded 39.1% and 36.9% to £231.25/MWh and £245.00/MWh, respectively.

Baseload electricity
Day-ahead power rose 72.0% to £227.00/MWh, following strong gains set in near-term gas contracts, amid Russia-Ukraine conflict. March 22 power climbed 44.6% to £241.52/MWh and April 22 power increased 41.5% to £237.00/MWh.		Q222 power moved 38.7% higher to £233.00/MWh. The annual April 22 contract rose 38.0% to £238.13/MWh, 357.9% higher than the same time last year (£52.00/MWh).
Forward Curve Comparison		Annual April Contract
Peak electricity
Day-ahead peak power was up 57.5% to £252.00/MWh, following baseload power higher. March 22 peak power gained 1.7% to £193.5/MWh, and April 22 peak power decreased 7.1% to £170.00/MWh.		The annual April 22 peak power rose 7.4% to £194.63/MWh This is 233.0% higher than the same time last year (£58.45/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual April contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts		Seasonal baseload power curve
All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 28.0%. Summer 22 and winter 22 expanded 39.1% and 36.9% respectively, rising to £231.25/MWh and £245.00/MWh.		Most seasonal peak power contracts climbed this week, up 14.1% on average. Summer 22 gas dropped 0.7% to £180.00/MWh, while winter 22 peak power contract increased 16.2% to £209.25/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal		Carbon
Brent crude prices recorded further gains this week, a consistent trend with much of the start of 2022. Brent crude prices averaged $98.46/bl this week, 5.6% higher than the previous week. This also included a fresh seven-year high on Thursday 24 February at $105.06/bl. More specifically this week, prices gained strong momentum from news that Russia has invaded Ukraine, with news breaking in the UK early Thursday morning. Should oil sanctions be imposed as some economies have suggested, we could see further tightening of an already restricted Brent crude supply market, exacerbating price rises.		Carbon prices saw collective increases from the week prior. The UK ETS increased 1.2% to average £85.23/t, with the EU ETS climbing too, up 0.4% to average €89.45/t. Impending colder weather and lowering wind outturn will likely place increased emphasis on gas-fired plant to meet demand and drive up the demand for EUA’s to cover carbon emissions. Elsewhere compliance buying ahead of the 2021 reporting period for some generators has lent bullish price support too.
Wholesale price snapshot