Energy Wholesale Market Review, 25 October 2019

Headlines

The majority of power and gas contracts decreased this week. Day-ahead contracts were an exception with day-ahead gas jumping 7.5% to 30.0p/th, driven by rising demand amid a drop in temperatures and weaker wind generation. Day-ahead power gained 4.9% to finish the week at £44.3/MWh following gas prices higher. November 2019 gas lost 2.6% to 40.6p/th and December 19 gas dropped 5.6% to 44.1p/th. Seasonal gas contracts fell 1.7% on average with summer 20 gas dropping 3.5% to 40.8p/th. November 19 power dropped 2.8% to £47.9/MWh while December 19 power fell 3.8% to £49.7/MWh. Seasonal power prices slipped 1.5% on average. Summer 20 power fell 2.5% to £46.1/MWh, winter 20 contract lost 1.4% to £53.4/MWh Brent crude oil rose 1.9% to average $60.0/bl, as US stocks saw an unexpected decline early last week. US-China trade talks and the global declining economy are acting as opposite drivers. OPEC cuts resulting in lower stockpiles could drive prices up in the coming months. EU ETS carbon increasing 1.3% to average €25.3/t. Prices still supported by the agreement of a Brexit deal between the EU and the UK. API 2 coal prices dropped 2.3% to average $67.0/t.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power gained 4.9% to finish the week at £44.3/MWh.
  • November 19 power dropped 2.8% to £47.9/MWh while December 19 power fell 3.8% to £49.7/MWh.
  • Q120 power slipped 4.0% to £52.0/MWh.
  • The annual April 20 power contract slipped 1.9% to £49.8/MWh. This is 9.3% lower than the same time last year (£54.9/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Baseload electricity Forward curve comparison 25 October 2019

Annual October Contract

Baseload electricity Annual April contract 25 October 2019

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power rose 5.4% to £49.0/MWh, £4.7/MWh above its baseload counterpart.
  • November 19 peak power fell 2.8% to £55.0/MWh.
  • December 19 peak power decreased 3.5% to £56.2/MWh.
  • Annual April 20 peak power was 1.7% lower at £55.5/MWh, £5.7/MWh above its baseload power counterpart.
  • The contract is 9.3% below its value this time last year (£59.8/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Peak electricity Forward curve comparison 25 October 2019

Annual October contract

Peak electricity Annual April contract 25 October 2019

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power contracts 25 October 2019

Seasonal baseload power curve

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power curve 25 October 2019

  • All seasonal power contracts declined this week, going down 1.5% on average.
  • Summer 20 power fell 2.5% to £46.1/MWh, winter 20 contract lost 1.4% to £53.4/MWh.
  • Seasonal peak power contracts were 1.2% lower on average.
  • Summer 20 peak power fell 2.1% to £50.0/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

Commodity price movements Oil and Coal 25 October 2019

 

Carbon

Commodity price movements Carbon 25 October 2019

  • Brent crude oil rose 1.9% to average $60.0/bl.
  • US stocks saw an unexpected decline early last week, resulting in lower supply.
  • US-China trade talks and the global declining economy are acting as opposite drivers. OPEC cuts resulting in lower stockpiles could drive prices up in the coming months.
  • API 2 coal prices dropped 2.3% to average $67.0/t.
  • Gas oversupply in NW Europe and a slow return to production in Indian coal mines following monsoon season saw decreased coal-for-power demand.
  • EU ETS carbon increasing 1.3% to average €25.3/t.
  • Prices still supported by the agreement of a Brexit deal between the EU and the UK.
  • However, frustrations preside over Brexit talks as Prime Minister Boris Johnson failed to get approval for a 3-day timetable to scrutinise the Brexit deal agreed with the UK.
Wholesale price snaphot

Wholesale price snapshot 25 October 2019

Posted by TEAM on 28 October 2019
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