Energy Wholesale Market Review, 25 October 2019

• Day-ahead power gained 4.9% to finish the week at £44.3/MWh.
• November 19 power dropped 2.8% to £47.9/MWh while December 19 power fell 3.8% to £49.7/MWh.

• Q120 power slipped 4.0% to £52.0/MWh.
• The annual April 20 power contract slipped 1.9% to £49.8/MWh. This is 9.3% lower than the same time last year (£54.9/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power rose 5.4% to £49.0/MWh, £4.7/MWh above its baseload counterpart.
• November 19 peak power fell 2.8% to £55.0/MWh.
• December 19 peak power decreased 3.5% to £56.2/MWh.

• Annual April 20 peak power was 1.7% lower at £55.5/MWh, £5.7/MWh above its baseload power counterpart.
• The contract is 9.3% below its value this time last year (£59.8/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal power contracts declined this week, going down 1.5% on average.
• Summer 20 power fell 2.5% to £46.1/MWh, winter 20 contract lost 1.4% to £53.4/MWh.

• Seasonal peak power contracts were 1.2% lower on average.
• Summer 20 peak power fell 2.1% to £50.0/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil rose 1.9% to average $60.0/bl.
• US stocks saw an unexpected decline early last week, resulting in lower supply.
• US-China trade talks and the global declining economy are acting as opposite drivers. OPEC cuts resulting in lower stockpiles could drive prices up in the coming months.
• API 2 coal prices dropped 2.3% to average $67.0/t.
• Gas oversupply in NW Europe and a slow return to production in Indian coal mines following monsoon season saw decreased coal-for-power demand.

• EU ETS carbon increasing 1.3% to average €25.3/t.
• Prices still supported by the agreement of a Brexit deal between the EU and the UK.
• However, frustrations preside over Brexit talks as Prime Minister Boris Johnson failed to get approval for a 3-day timetable to scrutinise the Brexit deal agreed with the UK.

Wholesale price snaphot