Energy Wholesale Market Review, 25 September 2020

• Day-ahead power fell 10.9% to £47/MWh, following increased wind generation experienced throughout the week.
• October 20 power slipped 0.3% at £42.75/MWh and November 20 power decreased 1.6% to £52.13/MWh.

• Q420 power moved 1.1% lower to £48.66/MWh.
• The annual October 20 contract lost 1.6% to £46.87/MWh, 9.1% lower than the same time last year (£51.59/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was down 12.2% to £52.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower, in light of the reductions in wind generation experienced across the week.
• October 20 peak power declined 0.6% at £49.33/MWh, and November 20 peak power increased 0.2% to £63.25/MWh.

• The annual October 20 peak power lost 1.4% to £53.54/MWh.
• This is 7.6% lower than the same time last year (57.95/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 1.2%.
• Winter 20 power decreased 0.8% to £50.57/MWh, while summer 21 fell 2.5% to £43.16/MWh.

• All seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 1.6% on average.
• Winter 20 and summer 21 peak power dropped 1.0% and 2.0% respectively, falling to £59.40/MWh and £47.67/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Following previous gains, brent crude oil prices rose again this week, seeing a 1.5% increase to average $41.89/bl, maintaining a strong position above $40/bl throughout the entirety of the week. API2 coal similarly experienced growth rising 1.6% to $59.11/t.
• The crude oil price was generally supported amid relative market positivity – despite some of the fresh lockdown restrictions imposed across the UK in the bid to retain control over the Coronavirus.
• Initial reports indicated that global oil consumption could reach pre-covid levels despite the new measures imposed.

• Following the previous week’s increase, EU ETS prices fell 8.0% to average €26.90/t this week.
• This week’s price movements highlight the continued volatility of the EU ETS prices in recent months, struggling to find much continuity week on week.
• Weak demand as a result of the on-going pandemic coupled with increased supply of EUA’s weighed on prices significantly
  

Wholesale price snapshot