Energy Wholesale Market Review, 26 March 2021

• Day-ahead power fell 24.9% to £47.75/MWh, following periods of strong wind generation and wavering demand throughout the week.
• April 21 power climbed 3.1% at £57.2/MWh and May 21 power increased 3.5% to £55.45/MWh.

• Q221 power moved 1.8% higher to £56.1/MWh.
• The annual April 21 contract rose 1.8% to £60.5/MWh, 54.7% higher than the same time last year (£39.1/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual April Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was up 8.6% to £66.80/MWh, counteracting bearish trends from its baseload counterpart.
• April 21 peak power gained 1.1% at £59.96/MWh, and May 21 peak power increased 3.5% to £59.37/MWh.

• The annual April 21 peak power lost 0.3% to £67.07/MWh.
• This is 48.7% lower than the same time last year (45.11/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual April contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 0.4%.
• Summer 21 and winter 21 expanded 2.9% and 0.9% respectively, rising to £56.10/MWh and £64.90/MWh.

• Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 0.2% on average.
• Summer 21 gas increased 1.3% to £59.90/MWh, while winter 21 peak power dropped 0.4% to £74.23/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil prices slipped this week, down 6.4% to average $63.09/bl.
• Tanker transit disruption acted bullishly on Brent crude prices this week. On 23 March, a tanker sailing down the Suez Canal became ‘beached’, causing significant congestion for other vessels trying to pass. This ultimately led to notable supply disruption, supporting prices.
• Despite this supply disruption, prices were still weighed on heavily this week by news select countries in Europe continue to delay vaccine issuance amid concerns over side effects.

• EU ETS carbon prices fell this week, declining 2.9% to average €41.31/t.
• Losses on the Brent crude market fed through to carbon prices this week, albeit prices are still relatively buoyant comparing against recent months.
• Similarly, EUA’s slipped on Thursday, primarily driven by coronavirus infection cases rising in Europe, fuelling demand concerns.

Wholesale price snapshot