Energy Wholesale Market Review, 27 March 2020

• Day-ahead power fell 5.7% to £29.00/MWh, as lower demand on the NTS has pressed upon power prices in recent days.
• April 20 power slipped 16.3% at £26.80/MWh and May 20 power decreased 16.1% to £26.57/MWh.

• Q220 power moved 12.8% lower to £27.12/MWh.
• The Annual April 20 contract lost 5.9% to £33.70/MWh, 31.9% lower than the same time last year (£49.52/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was down 10.4% to £30.00/MWh with peak demand levels greatly reduced due to lockdown measures imposed on the public.
• April 20 peak power Declined 13.4% at £29.27/MWh, and May 20 peak power decreased 13.2% to £29.70/MWh.

• The Annual April 20 peak power lost 4.2% to 39.12/MWh.
• This is 29.8% lower than the same time last year (55.73/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 3.5%.
• summer 20 power decreased 9.6% to £28.35/MWh, while winter 20 fell 3.0% to £39.05/MWh.

• Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down £2.6% on average.
• Summer 20 and winter 20 peak power dropped 8.8% and 0.7% respectively, falling to £31.94/MWh and £46.30/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil fell 8.2% to average $26.79/bl as prices twice dropped below $26/bl this week, extending 17-year lows. Prices were volatile this week, but ultimately ended the week lower at $25.96/bl.
• A rise in fiscal action taken by central banks around the world – notably the ECB and US Federal Reserve – saw oil prices make some early week gains.
• Repots of rising stockpiles around the world adds to the oversupply of the commodity.
• Global measures to help prevent the spread of Covid-19 has seen demand for oil fall increasingly sharply in recent weeks.
• Ever widening demand/supply market will continue to weigh on prices.

• API 2 coal opposed oil again and rose, rising 2.7% to average $57.16/t as coal prices were relatively unchanged when compared to other commodity markets.
• Lower wind generation across Europe and decreased consumption in India acted as opposite drivers last week.
• EU ETS carbon prices remained low last week, falling a further 6.9% to average €16.32/t.
• Opening at €14.90/t on Monday 23 March, prices made marginal gains throughout the week as EUA auctions saw higher demand, mostly in reaction to stimulus provide by central banks.

Wholesale price snapshot