Energy Wholesale Market Review, 27 September 2019
Headlines
Nearly all wholesale power and gas contracts, and commodities moved lower. The exception was the day-ahead contracts, with day-ahead power and gas rising 4.6% and 11.5% to £40.0/MWh and 26.8p/th respectively, supported by weaker wind generation and cooler temperatures forecast next week. October and November 19 power dropped 0.9% and 2.2% to £42.0/MWh and £51.9/MWh respectively. The expected return of the Hartlepool 2 (580MW) nuclear reactor on 19 October will bring total available nuclear capacity to 7.5GW (out of 9.0GW), helping offset any periods of lower wind generation this winter. All seasonal power contracts declined, dropping 0.7% on average. October and November 19 gas were down 1.9% and 1.8% to 32.0p/th and 45.1p/th respectively. October 19 gas has been pressured by expectations of comfortable gas supplies next month as the usual maintenance in September comes to an end and several LNG tankers are scheduled to arrive early in the month. All seasonal gas contracts moved lower, down 0.8% on average. Brent crude oil fell 3.8% to average $63.1/bl, with prices slipping from recent highs as previous concerns of lower Saudi Arabian production have eased. API 2 coal prices reversed the previous week’s gains, dropping 3.5% to average $67.6/t, its first weekly decline in four weeks. EU ETS carbon fell 2.5% to average €25.5/t, despite the UK Supreme Court’s ruling that the prorogation of Parliament was unlawful, which will likely ease concerns of a no-deal Brexit flooding the market with EUAs.
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Forward curve comparison
| Annual October Contract
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Forward curve comparison
| Annual October contract
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Seasonal baseload power contracts
| Seasonal baseload power curve
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| Commodity price movements | ||
Oil and Coal
| Carbon
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Wholesale price snaphot
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