Energy Wholesale Market Review, 28 May 2021

• Day-ahead power fell 0.3% to £73.00/MWh, following warmer temperatures as the week matured and losses across gas contracts on the near curve.
• June 21 power slipped 2.5% to £73.60/MWh and July 21 power decreased 2.0% to £73.25/MWh.

• Q321 power moved 1.9% lower to £73.60/MWh.
• The annual October 21 contract lost 0.3% to £70.17/MWh, 62.7% higher than the same time last year (£43.12/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual April Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was down 2.5% to £74.25/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
• June 21 peak power declined 8.4% to £73.60/MWh, and July 21 peak power decreased 4.7% to £75.25/MWh.

• Annual October 21 peak power lost 1.0% to £77.38/MWh.
• This is 58.6% lower than the same time last year (£48.79/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual April contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 1.0%.
• Winter 21 power decreased 0.2% to £81.00/MWh, while summer 22 fell 1.9% to £58.35/MWh.

• Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 1.1% on average.
• Winter 21 peak power increased 3.6% to £95.00/MWh, while summer 22 peak power dropped 7.7% to £59.75/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil edged 1.0% higher to average $68.52/bl.
• The most notable driving force for bullish Brent crude prices this week was the on-going negotiations around a nuclear deal between the US and Iran. The deal itself would see sanctions lift on Iranian oil exports and subsequently lower prices.
• News circulated that such discussions were not operating as smoothly as first thought which fed into some uncertainty about the deal going ahead, lending support to prices.

• EU ETS carbon prices remained high, but lost 1.1% to average €52.65/t. Similar to its European counterpart, UK ETS fell this week, down 1% from the week prior to reach £50.17/t.
• Stronger renewables output at the week’s start dampened carbon prices across both markets, but most notably on the EU ETS.
• Similarly, stronger performing international commodity markets continue to feed through into carbon markets.

Wholesale price snapshot