Energy Wholesale Market Review, 29 May 2020

Headlines

Most power and gas contracts rose this week, driven higher by a recovery in their respective day-ahead contracts. Day-ahead gas rose 27.7% to 8.75p/th as gas-for-power demand recovered from the low levels seen late last week. Day-ahead power rose 11.6% to £24.00/MWh, following a significant drop in wind generation compared to the end of last week. June 20 gas was up 14.2% at 9.74p/th, and July 20 gas increased 30.4% to 11.50p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts rose this week, up by 0.6% on average, while winter 20 and summer 21 gas increased 2.3% and 0.1% to 30.78p/th and 28.80p/th, respectively. Most seasonal power contracts lifted this week, up on average by 0.2%, as winter 20 and summer 21 expanded 2.8% and 1.2% respectively, rising to £42.16/MWh and £37.50/MWh. Brent crude oil surrendered recent momentum towards the end of this week, following a few weeks of consecutive gains, falling 0.1% from last week. Tensions between the US and China flared up again as the two economic powerhouses clashed over policy in Hong Kong and continued to dispute over the Chinese purchase of US energy. EU ETS carbon prices gained 4.2% from the previous week to average €21.42/t, aided by a lower number of EUA auctions this week.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power rose 11.6% to £24.00/MWh, following lower wind generation towards the end of this week, compared with the high levels seen last week.
  • June 20 power slipped 2.7% to £23.60/MWh and July 20 power decreased 1.9% to £25.50/MWh.
  • Q320 power moved 1.0% higher to £27.25/MWh.
  • The annual October 20 contract rose 2.0% to £39.83/MWh, 22.3% lower than the same time last year (£51.29/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Baseload electricity Forward curve comparison 29 May 2020

Annual October Contract

Baseload electricity Annual October contract 29 May 2020

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power was up 17.4% to £25.25/MWh following its baseload counterpart higher.
  • June 20 peak power declined 2.5% to £26.42/MWh, and July 20 peak power increased 0.2% to £28.66/MWh.
  • The annual October 20 peak power lost 0.3% to 44.91/MWh.
  • This is 21.8% lower than the same time last year (57.45/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Peak electricity Forward curve comparison 29 May 2020

Annual October contract

Peak electricity Annual October contract 29 May 2020

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power contracts 29 May 2020

Seasonal baseload power curve

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power curve 29 May 2020

 

  • Most seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 0.2%.
  • Winter 20 and summer 21 power expanded 2.8% and 1.2% respectively, rising to £42.16/MWh and £37.50/MWh.
  • All seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, up 0.3% on average.
  • Winter 20 and summer 21 peak power increased 0.5% and 0.2% to £48.22/MWh and £41.59/MWh, respectively.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

Commodity price movements Oil and coal 29 May 2020

Carbon

Commodity price movements Carbon 29 May 2020

  • Brent crude oil surrendered recent momentum towards the end of this week, following a few weeks of consecutive gains.
  • Brent prices averaged $35.17/bl to fall 0.1% from the previous week.
  • Tensions between the US and China flared up again this week as the two economic powerhouses clashed over policy in Hong Kong and continued to dispute over the Chinese purchase of US energy.
  • Oil prices will be further hit as a result of weak demand should aggressive action be taken by either country.
  • The easing of lockdown measures across the globe continues to prove an upwards driver to oil prices, although this support has so far been minimal.
  • EU ETS carbon prices gained 4.2% from the previous week to average €21.42/t, hitting a one-month high of €21.65/t early in the week, aided by a lower number of EUA auctions this week.
  • Increased supply will likely weigh on prices next week.
  • API 2 coal prices slipped to $52.18/t as prices continued to show minimal movements.
Wholesale price snapshot

Wholesale price snapshot 29 May 2020

Posted by TEAM on 29 May 2020
  • Wholesale Market

    • 2020 (26)
    • +2019 (50)
    • +2018 (17)
  • Blog & News Archive

    • 2020 (44)
    • +2019 (87)
    • +2018 (59)
    • +2017 (32)
    • +2016 (33)
    • +2015 (57)
    • +2014 (26)
    • +2013 (13)
    • +2012 (8)
    • +2010 (1)