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Energy Wholesale Market Review, 29 November 2019

Headlines

Most power and gas contracts fell this week as temperatures were above seasonal normal levels. Day-ahead gas was an exception and rose 1.0% to 42.40p/th amid lower LNG send-out, while day-ahead power rose 9.0% to £49.60/MWh on a drop in wind generation late in the week. December 19 gas was down 1.3% at 41.55p/th, and January 20 gas decreased 1.5% to 43.57p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 1.6% on average, while both summer 20 and winter 20 gas dropped 3.2% and 2.1% respectively, subsiding to 38.32p/th and 48.37p/th. Seasonal power contracts were mixed this week, but fell by 0.2% on average, as summer 20 power decreased 1.1% to £44.88/MWh, while winter 20 fell 0.7% to £52.13/MWh. Brent crude oil rose 1.9% to $63.69/bl as President Donald Trump flared tensions with China as he signed a bill backing Hong Kong protesters. China has threatened to retaliate, ensuring the US that it would take “firm countermeasures”. EU ETS carbon gained 3.8% to €24.73/t as the EU parliament declared a climate and environmental emergency this week, while API 2 coal climbed 0.5% to $63.99/t.

Baseload electricity
Day-ahead power rose 9.0% to £49.60/MWh, following a significant drop in wind generation at the end of the week. December 19 power slipped 0.1% to £47.50/MWh and January 20 power also decreased 0.1% to £50.32/MWh.		Q120 power moved 0.1% lower to £49.75/MWh. The Annual April 20 contract lost 0.9% to £48.50/MWh, 10.4% lower than the same time last year (£54.11/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual October Contract
Peak electricity
Day-ahead peak power was down 11.2% to £55.60/MWh despite an increase in baseload power. December 19 peak power declined 0.1% to £53.76/MWh and January 20 peak power increased 0.5% to £57.76/MWh.		The Annual April 20 peak power lost 0.9% to £53.83/MWh. This is 11.9% lower than the same time last year (£61.13/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual October contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts		Seasonal baseload power curve
Seasonal power contracts were mixed this week, but overall were down on average by 0.2%. Summer 20 and winter 20 dropped 1.1% and 0.7% respectively, falling to £44.88/MWh and £52.13/MWh.		Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 0.2% on average. Summer 20 and winter 20 peak power dropped 1.1% and 0.7% respectively, falling to £48.71/MWh and £58.96/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal		Carbon
Brent crude oil rose 1.9% to average $63.69/bl. Prices were supported by increased tensions in the Middle East after fighting led to the shutdown of a Libyan oilfield. Prices are currently sitting 5.6% higher than last year. President Donald Trump flared tensions with China as he signed a bill backing Hong Kong protesters. China has threatened to retaliate, ensuring the US that it would take “firm countermeasures”. API 2 coal climbed 0.5% to $63.99/t with prices down 24.3% on the same time last year.		EU ETS carbon gained 3.8% to €24.73/t prices. EU announcements and lower auction volumes supported prices this week. The EU parliament declared a climate and environmental emergency this week. The EU wants to assure all necessary budgeting and legislative action is taken to ensure that global warming is kept under 1.5°C.
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