Energy Wholesale Market Review, 29 November 2019

• Day-ahead power rose 9.0% to £49.60/MWh, following a significant drop in wind generation at the end of the week.
• December 19 power slipped 0.1% to £47.50/MWh and January 20 power also decreased 0.1% to £50.32/MWh.

• Q120 power moved 0.1% lower to £49.75/MWh.
• The Annual April 20 contract lost 0.9% to £48.50/MWh, 10.4% lower than the same time last year (£54.11/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was down 11.2% to £55.60/MWh despite an increase in baseload power.
• December 19 peak power declined 0.1% to £53.76/MWh and January 20 peak power increased 0.5% to £57.76/MWh.

• The Annual April 20 peak power lost 0.9% to £53.83/MWh.
• This is 11.9% lower than the same time last year (£61.13/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Seasonal power contracts were mixed this week, but overall were down on average by 0.2%.
• Summer 20 and winter 20 dropped 1.1% and 0.7% respectively, falling to £44.88/MWh and £52.13/MWh.

• Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 0.2% on average.
• Summer 20 and winter 20 peak power dropped 1.1% and 0.7% respectively, falling to £48.71/MWh and £58.96/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil rose 1.9% to average $63.69/bl.
• Prices were supported by increased tensions in the Middle East after fighting led to the shutdown of a Libyan oilfield.
• Prices are currently sitting 5.6% higher than last year.
• President Donald Trump flared tensions with China as he signed a bill backing Hong Kong protesters. China has threatened to retaliate, ensuring the US that it would take “firm countermeasures”.
• API 2 coal climbed 0.5% to $63.99/t with prices down 24.3% on the same time last year.

• EU ETS carbon gained 3.8% to €24.73/t prices.
• EU announcements and lower auction volumes supported prices this week.
• The EU parliament declared a climate and environmental emergency this week.
• The EU wants to assure all necessary budgeting and legislative action is taken to ensure that global warming is kept under 1.5°C.

Wholesale price snaphot