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Energy Wholesale Market Review, 30 April 2021

Headlines

It was a largely bullish week for gas and power markets this week, with exceptions on the day-ahead baseload power contract. Day-ahead gas rose 10.7% to 61.75p/th, supported by a consistently colder week, ultimately offsetting periods of system oversupply. Day-ahead power fell 7.5% to £62.00/MWh, weighed upon by strong and consistent wind generation throughout the week. May 21 gas was up 14.1% at 59.65p/th, and June 21 gas increased 7.9% to 57.34p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 4.9% on average, as winter 21 and summer 22 gas increased 9.4% and 6.4% respectively, lifting to 64.89p/th and 45.93p/th. All seasonal power contracts climbed this week, up on average by 4.8%. Winter 21 and summer 22 power rose 6.0% and 4.6% to £75.25/MWh and £55.35/MWh, respectively. Brent crude oil prices rose lifted 0.6% to average $66.59/bl. Meetings held with OPEC+ members to decide how to mitigate demand impacts from rising cases in India did provide a positive reaction to the market, easing demand concerns and subsequently supporting prices. Similarly, a more positive demand outlook ultimately offset the concerns in India and Asia this week. EU ETS carbon prices rose 4.5% to average €47.48/t. Prices once again broke all-time record highs, reaching a peak of €48.12/t on 28 April.

Baseload electricity
Day-ahead power fell 7.5% to £62.00/MWh, weighed upon by stronger wind generation throughout the week. May 21 power climbed 9.6% to £68.90/MWh and June 21 power increased 8.9% to £69.71/MWh.		Q321 power moved 9.0% higher to £68.70/MWh. The annual October 21 contract rose 5.4% to £65.3o/MWh, 61.0% higher than the same time last year (£40.55/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual April Contract
Peak electricity
Day-ahead peak power was down 3.5% to £69.25/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower. May 21 peak power gained 2.9% to £70.50/MWh, and June 21 peak power increased 6.1% to £73.50/MWh.		Annual October 21 peak power lost 13.0% to £69.93/MWh. This is 47.2% lower than the same time last year (£47.50/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual April contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts		Seasonal baseload power curve
All seasonal power contracts increased this week, up on average by 4.8%. Winter 21 and summer 22 gained 6.0% and 4.6% respectively, rising to £75.25/MWh and £55.35/MWh.		All seasonal peak power contracts rose this week, up 11.7% on average. Winter 21 and summer 22 peak power increased 13.6% and 12.2% to £80.10/MWh and £59.75/MWh, respectively.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal		Carbon
Brent crude oil prices rose 0.6% to average $66.59/bl, this week. At the week’s start, prices were weighed upon by growing concerns about rapidly climbing infection rates in major oil consuming countries, namely India and Japan. This continued to fuel demand recovery and growth concerns within the market. However, meetings held with OPEC+ members to decide how to mitigate demand impacts from rising cases in India did provide a positive reaction to the market, easing demand concerns and subsequently supporting prices.		EU ETS carbon prices climbed 4.5% to average €47.48/t. Prices once again broke all-time record highs, reaching a peak of €48.12/t on 28 April. EU ETS carbon continues to rise to unprecedented highs, also drawing on the sustained price rises made in Brent crude markets. This week in particular, carbon prices benefitted from ‘last-minute’ compliance buying for the EU ETS, with the cut off deadline on 30 April. Friday marked the final day to surrender EUA’s for 2020 emissions compliance.
Wholesale price snapshot