Energy Wholesale Market Review, 30 November 2018

Baseload electricity

• Day-ahead power fell 9.7% to £60.5/MWh.
• December 18 power dropped 3.5% to £63.2/MWh and January 19 power lost 1.5% to £66.0/MWh.

• Annual April 19 power decreased 0.9% to £59.0/MWh.
• The contract is 3.2% below the same time last month when it was £57.2/MWh.

Forward curve comparison

Annual April Contract

Peak electricity

• Day-ahead peak power dropped 13.0% week-on-week to £65.5/MWh. This was £5.0/MWh above its baseload counterpart, a £3.3/MWh decrease week-on-week.
• Month-ahead peak power went down 3.2% to end the week at £69.9/MWh, £6.7/MWh above its baseload counterpart.

• Week-on-week, annual April 19 peak power went down 0.8% to £64.8/MWh. The contract was £5.8/MWh above its baseload power counterpart.
• The contract was 2.4% above its price last month (£63.3/MWh) and 29.9% higher than its value last year (£49.9/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual April Contract

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal baseload power contracts decreased week-on-week, down 0.9% on average.
• Summer 19 power decreased 0.8% to £56.2/MWh and the winter 19 contract slipped 1.0% to £61.9/MWh.

• All seasonal peak power contracts decreased this week, down 0.7% on average.
• Prices followed their gas counterparts, with seasonal gas contracts 0.4% lower on average.

Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• The weekly average Brent crude oil price fell for an eighth consecutive week, losing 6.3% to average $60.3/bl.
• Within-day oil prices plummeted to $57.6/bl on 29 November, a 13-month low.
• This followed news the previous day that US crude stocks rose for a tenth consecutive week, up 3.5mn to their highest since December 2017, 450.4mn barrels.
• API 2 coal prices rose 0.9% to average $84.5/t, supported by an increase in German coal-fired generation.

• EU ETS carbon prices were little changed, increasing 0.2% to average €19.9/t.
• Prices were relatively stable throughout the week with healthy auction demand countered by the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit’s impact on the EU ETS.
• The upcoming Market Stability Reserve, commencing in January 2019, could provide support to EU ETS carbon prices over the next month; however, this could be countered by the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the potential for a lack of demand from UK emitters.

Wholesale price snapshot