Headlines
It was a relatively mixed week again for gas and power pricing fundamentals this week, with the most pronounced upwards trends seen on near-term contracts, with seasonal contracts generally easing slightly. In support of this, day-ahead gas rose 9.1% to 180.00p/th, rebounding against losses observed from the week prior. Gas prices this week primarily benefitted from select periods of increased heating and gas-for-power demand. Day-ahead power rose 30.5% to £171.00/MWh, drawing on gains seen in near-term gas contracts, along with periods of lower wind outturn. December 21 gas was up 7.0% at 192.68p/th, and January 22 gas increased 5.2% to 195.31p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 4.4% on average, while both summer 22 and winter 22 gas dropped 1.5% and 1.7% respectively, subsiding to 105.95p/th and 108.69p/th. Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 0.6%, as summer 22 power decreased 1.2% to £106.00/MWh, while winter 22 fell 1.6% to £108.25/MWh.
Baseload electricity | | |
- Day-ahead power rose 30.5% to £171/MWh, following notable gains made in short-term gas contracts and select periods of low wind outturn.
- December 21 power climbed 1.1% at £183.96/MWh and January 22 power decreased 0.5% to £208.85/MWh.
| | - Q122 power moved 1.4% higher to £182.5/MWh.
- The annual April 22 contract lost 1.4% to £107.13/MWh, 131.7% higher than the same time last year (£46.23/MWh).
|
Forward Curve Comparison | | Annual April Contract |
Peak electricity | | |
- Day-ahead peak power was up 18.2% to £188.00/MWh, following baseload power higher.
- December 21 peak power declined 18.9% at £223/MWh, and January 22 peak power increased 13.1% to £274.66/MWh.
| | - The annual April 22 peak power rose 6.6% to £125.2/MWh
- This is 139.3% higher than the same time last year (52.31/MWh).
|
Forward curve comparison | | Annual April contract |
Seasonal power prices | | |
Seasonal baseload power contracts | | Seasonal baseload power curve |
- Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 0.6%.
- Summer 22 power decreased 1.2% to £106.00/MWh, while winter 22 fell 1.6% to £108.25/MWh.
| | - The majority of seasonal peak power contracts rose this week, up 7.3% on average.
- Summer 22 gas increased 2.2% to £117.50/MWh, while winter 22 peak power dropped 13.1% to £132.89/MWh.
|
Commodity price movements | | |
Oil and Coal | | Carbon
|
- Brent crude prices averaged $83.20/bl last week, down 2.1% on the previous week’s average of $84.99/bl.
- Primarily, the outlook for Brent crude prices remains consistent with recent trends, buoyed by the continuation of tighter market fundamentals.
- Prices continue to gain support from OPEC+ recent decision to hold firm on output levels for the remainder of 2021, despite wider market pressures to increase supply to ease the tight market conditions.
- Last week however, surplus crude volumes in the US sent bearish signals to the market.
| | - EU ETS prices saw gains last week, up 0.9% to average €59.61/t, while UK ETS prices dropped 4.8% to average £53.07/t.
- UK ETS carbon prices remain volatile at the moment, with the relative immaturity of the market, seeing significant swings in price over the last fortnight.
- Recovering wind and renewable generation of late has seen lowering demand for fossil fuel generation to meet higher demand levels, weighing on prices as a result.
|
Wholesale price snapshot |