Energy Wholesale Market Review, 6 March 2020

• Day-ahead power fell 5.4% to £33.25/MWh despite reaching £43/MWh midweek on a significant drop-off in wind generation.
• April 20 power climbed 2.6% to £33.03/MWh and May 20 power increased 4.3% to £34.00/MWh.

• Q220 power moved 3.0% higher to £33.47/MWh.
• The Annual April 20 contract rose 2.4% to £38.34/MWh, 26.3% lower than the same time last year (£52.01/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was up 0.7% at £38.25/MWh, following its baseload counterpart higher.
• April 20 peak power gained 0.9% to £35.50/MWh, and May 20 peak power increased 0.1% to £36.35/MWh.

• The Annual April 20 peak power lost 2.8% to 43.92/MWh.
• This is 24.6% lower than the same time last year (58.24/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal power contracts increased this week, up on average by 2.5%.
• Summer 20 and winter 20 expanded 2.1% and 2.5% respectively, rising to £33.45/MWh and £43.22/MWh.

• All seasonal peak power contracts also rose this week, up £2.9% on average.
• Summer 20 and winter 20 peak power increased 2.2% and 3.3% respectively, falling to £37.45/MWh and £50.39/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil fell 5.1% to average $51.20/bl as oil prices extended two-year lows, falling to $48.18/bl on 6 March.
• The spread of the coronavirus on a global scale continues to impact stock and commodity markets.
• There were hopes that prices could lift on news of the outcome of the meeting of OPEC and OPEC+ allies in Vienna this week.
• Latest reports are that the deal of deeper production cuts could be in jeopardy, with Russia currently refusing to agree additional cuts worth 1.5mn bpd of global supply.

• API 2 coal saw marginal gains this week, rising 0.6% to average $57.40/t as lower stocks were reported at ARA terminals.
• EU ETS carbon prices followed oil and lost 1.3% to average €23.74/t this week, following lower demand for allowances in this week’s EU-wide auctions.

Wholesale price snapshot