Energy Wholesale Market Review, 6 November 2020

Headlines

Power contracts generally experienced upward price movements this week, with exceptions of the month-ahead contract and Q121 contract, both falling by 1.2% and 1.8% respectively. Power contracts have been predominately supported by low wind outturn throughout the week which has led to tight supply margins. The Day-ahead power contract benefitted from the aforementioned system conditions, rising 25.0% to £44.7/MWh. Gas contracts contrasted this, likely as a result of a short spell of increased temperature above seasonal normal levels, reducing demand. As such, day-ahead gas fell 1.4% to 37.45p/th. December 20 gas was down 5.1% at 40.50p/th, and January 21 gas decreased 0.7% to 41.79p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts rose last week, up by 5.2% on average, with summer 21 gas increasing 0.7% to 34.00p/th, while winter 21 gas dropped 0.2% to 41.93p/th. All seasonal power contracts grew, up on average by 1.5%, as summer 21 and winter 21 expanded 1.8% and 0.5% respectively, rising to £43.15/MWh and £48.91/MWh. Brent crude oil remained relatively static last week, averaging $39.76/bl. In recent weeks, the Brent crude price had remained relatively stable sitting above the $40.00/bl mark, but has slipped as a result of market uncertainty with global coronavirus cases escalating daily. EU ETS prices rose last week. Prices increased by 3.5% to average €24.43/t, lifting above recent price trends in the last fortnight where prices have remained close to €23.00/t.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power rose 25.0% to £44.7/MWh, amid generally low wind output observed over the course of the week, coupled with periods of high offline thermal capacity which consequently led to tight supply margins.
  • December 20 power slipped 1.2% at £47.2/MWh and January 21 power increased 5.8% to £53.06/MWh.
  • Q121 power moved 1.8% lower to £49.6/MWh.
  • The annual April 21 contract rose 1.1% to £46.03/MWh, 3.6% lower than the same time last year (£47.75/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Baseload electricity Forward curve comparison 6 November 2020

Annual October Contract

Baseload electricity Annual April contract 6 November 2020

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power was up 3.1% to £49.50/MWh, following, following its baseload counterpart higher.
  • December 20 peak power declined 2.2% at £54.26/MWh, and January 21 peak power decreased 0.8% to £58.48/MWh.
  • The annual April 21 peak power lost 1.5% to £52.09/MWh.
  • This is 3.5% lower than the same time last year (54/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Peak electricity Forward curve comparison 6 November 2020

Annual October contract

Peak electricity Annual April contract 6 November 2020

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power contracts 6 November 2020

Seasonal baseload power curve

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power curve 6 November 2020

  • All seasonal power contracts grew this week, up on average by 1.5%.
  • Summer 21 and winter 21 expanded 1.8% and 0.5% respectively, rising to £43.15/MWh and £48.91/MWh.
  • All seasonal peak power contracts increased this week, up 1.7% on average.
  • Summer 21 and winter 21 peak power increased 2.1% and 0.9% respectively, rising to £47.88/MWh and £56.29/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

Commodity price movements Oil and coal 6 November 2020

Carbon

Commodity price movements Carbon 6 November 2020

  • Brent crude oil remained relatively static last week, averaging $39.76/bl. In recent weeks, the Brent crude price has remained relatively stable sitting above the $40.00/bl mark.
  • Prices have been afflicted by recent widespread lockdown announcements throughout Europe, weighing on demand. Similarly, global cases of coronavirus continue to increase daily, generating underlying uncertainty within the market.
  • Assurances from OPEC in providing support to prices with supply cuts had acted to lift prices last week but it remains unclear whether this type of support mechanism will be robust enough to outweigh the ever growing concerns of demand fears.
  • API 2 coal declined, falling 5.6% to average $54.24/t for the week.
  • EU ETS prices rose last week. Prices increased by 3.5% to average €24.43/t, lifting above recent price trends in the last fortnight where prices have remained within the €23.00/t benchmark.
  • The carbon market followed other global commodity markets higher, as the U.S. presidential elections remain in deadlock.
  • Carbon markets will likely be subject to a degree of volatility as the outcome of the elections remains unclear.
  • Gains have also been driven by speculative buying from market participants, along with a looming drop in EUA supply.
Wholesale price snapshot 

Wholesale price snapshot 6 November 2020

 

Posted by TEAM on 9 November 2020
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