Energy Wholesale Market Review, 8 November 2019

• Day-ahead power rose 13.1% to £44.4/MWh as wind generation dropped mid-week.
• December 19 power slipped 0.6% to £48.8/MWh while January 20 power fell 1.4% to £51.5/MWh.

• Q120 power slipped 1.2% to £50.9/MWh.
• The annual April 20 power contract lost 0.5% to £49.1/MWh, 9.2% lower than the same time last year (£54.1/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power reversed last week’s gains, rising 11.1% to £48.9/MWh, £4.5/MWh above its baseload counterpart.
• December 19 peak power fell 1.3% to £54.7/MWh.
• January 20 peak power decreased 1.2% to £58.7/MWh.

• Annual April 20 peak power was 0.7% lower at £54.5/MWh, £5.4/MWh above its baseload power counterpart.
• The contract is 10.7% below its value this time last year (£61.1/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal power contracts declined further this week, going down 0.7% on average.
• Summer 20 power fell 0.6% to £45.4/MWh, while the winter 20 slipped 0.5% to £52.8/MWh.

• Seasonal peak power contracts were 4.7% lower on average.
• Summer 20 peak power fell 0.6% to £49.1/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil gained 2.2% to average $62.3/bl this week.
• Prices were supported by the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline following an oil spill.
• Delegates from OPEC this week have said that the organisation is more likely to encourage members to comply more fully with existing agreements to pledge to cut supplies by 1.2mn bpd.
• API 2 coal prices dropped a further 1.7% to $64.1/t, down 29.0% on the same time last year.

• EU ETS carbon reversed last week’s gains, losing 1.4% to €25.2/t.
• Weak auction results and waning German economic data weighed on prices.
• However, losses were offset by reduced auction volumes in Poland.
  Carbon price plans for post-Brexit have been outlined, with a “UK ETS” system that is linked to the current EU ETS with similar environmental ambition being preferred. However, such a linkage will need to be ratified by EU member nations.

Wholesale price snaphot