Energy Wholesale Market Review, 9 October 2020

• Day-ahead power rose 10.3% to £48.55/MWh, owing to increases in demand observed as the week progressed.
• November 20 power slipped 0.2% to £49.85/MWh and December 20 power increased 0.5% to £50.75/MWh.

• Q121 power moved 1.7% higher to £52.4/MWh.
• The annual April 21 contract rose 2.6% to £47.35/MWh, 5.0% lower than the same time last year (£49.86/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power went down 5.7% to £46.70/MWh, countering trends seen by its baseload counterpart.
• November 20 peak power declined 4.2% to £61.65/MWh, and December 20 peak power decreased 2.4% to £59.49/MWh.

• The annual April 21 peak power contract lost 1.1% to £53.14/MWh.
• This is 6.7% lower than the same time last year (56.98/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Most seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 2.1%.
• Summer 21 power gained 3.1% and winter 21 power climbed 2.3% to £44.00/MWh and £50.70/MWh, respectively.

• All seasonal peak power increased this week, up 1.1% on average.
• Summer 21 and winter 21 peak power increased 1.6% and 0.7% to £48.66/MWh and £57.61/MWh, respectively.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Following a slight decline from the previous week, Brent crude oil rose this week, seeing a 1.6% increase to average $41.86/bl.
• Reversing previous market fears surrounding the health of US President, Donald Trump – the market reacted positively to news president Trump had left hospital and returned to the Whitehouse.
• In contrast, API 2 coal declined 0.5% to $59.79/t.

• Following the previous week’s decline EU ETS carbon prices rose this week, reversing a two week consecutive decline. Prices rose 0.3% to average €26.72/t.
• Despite the uplift this week, a general sentiment of a looming ‘hard Brexit’ continues to weigh on prices. Concerns remain as to the structure of EU ETS carbon trading and its functionality when the UK ultimately removes itself from the European Union. Prices generally remain relatively low in comparison to recent weeks, where prices observed were upwards of €29.00/t.

Wholesale price snapshot