Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Last week saw a bullish adjustment across the majority of tracked power and gas contracts, with day-ahead baseload & peak power acting as the only exception to this trend. Day-ahead gas rose 3.6% to 137.75p/th, with these gains driven by periods of below-average temperature across most of the week, increasing domestic power demand, elevating the requirement for more expensive forms of power generation like gas-fired generation. Similarly, reduced Norwegian flows due to maintenance across some key gas fields drove price higher. Conversely, day-ahead power fell 6.1% to £111.40/MWh, with strong wind generation forecasts for 7 & 10 February weighing bearishly on prices towards the weeks end, reducing reliance on more expensive forms of fuelled power generation. March 25 gas was up 4.0% at 136.05p/th, and April 25 gas increased 4.7% to 134.58p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 5.5% on average, while both summer 25 and winter 25 gas increased 3.9% and 6.2% respectively, lifting to 133.38p/th and 127.45p/th. All seasonal power contracts registered gains last week, up on average by 4.4%, as summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 3.0% and 6.0% respectively, rising to £102.00/MWh and £105.25/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 6.1% to £111.40/MWh, following strong wind forecast at the weeks end, easing system margins.
- March 25 power climbed 4.0% at £111.80/MWh and April 25 power increased 7.4% to £107.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q225 power moved 2.5% higher to £102.25/MWh.
- The annual April 25 contract rose 4.5% to £103.63/MWh, 47.8% higher than the same time last year (£70.13/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 2.7% to £143.50/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- March 25 peak power gained 7.9% at £124.45/MWh, and April 25 peak power increased 10.3% to £116.40/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 25 peak power rose 5.0% to £105.50/MWh
- This is 50.7% higher than the same time last year (70.00/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 4.4%.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 3.0% and 6.0% respectively, rising to £102.00/MWh and £105.25/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 5.1% on average.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 peak power increased 4.3% and 5.1% respectively, rising to £109.00/MWh and £120.25/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil maintained its week-on-week downward adjustment, easing 2.8% to average $77.15/bl, amid reports showing faster than expected wages and jobs growth in the U.S, which would likely push back any upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve interest cuts to later in the year
- However, stronger losses were limited as, despite pressure from Donald Trump, the OPEC+ group has said it won’t change its current plan to begin gradually unwinding the current supply cuts from April
- At the previous ministerial gathering in December, the alliance decided to delay the start of the easing of the 2.2 million bpd cuts to April 2025, from January 2025, keeping prices higher than they would be without the cuts
- Moreover, prices were further supported after new sanctions were imposed on Iran’s crude exports. These sanctions by the US targeted three vessels carrying Iranian crude oil to China
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU ETS carbon registered minor losses last week, falling 0.2% to average €81.28/t.
- UK ETS carbon prices continued its trend of week-on-week gains, up 9.9% to average £45.71/t, peaking at £47.21/t on 7 February, the highest level seen since June 2024.
- UK ETS carbon rose as a result of decreased wind power generation across the country leading to higher reliance on fossil-fueled forms of power generation to make up for the loss. Moreover, carbon prices continued to find support from higher gas prices across GB, remaining linked to adjustments in gas-for-heating demand
- UK ETS carbon prices also continued to find influence from a potential relinking of the UK and EU ETS
- Higher wind generation projections in the week ahead are set to decrease carbon prices, as lower reliance will be placed on more expensive forms of power generation
- However, as temperatures remain below-average in the week ahead, we anticipate that stronger losses across carbon prices will be limited as demand remains elevated
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
