Headlines
Most power and gas contracts rose this week, with day-ahead power acting against last week’s bullish trend. Day-ahead power fell 11.0% to £94.75/MWh, starting the week at a high of £113.20/MWh on 5 November, the highest price since 30 November 2023, due to low wind generation on the grid, with less than 5% of power being generated by wind on 5 November. However, power prices subsequently saw losses due to a strong increase of rates of wind generation on the grid across the week, easing reliance on expensive fuelled generation. Conversely, day-ahead gas rose 11.1% to 106.90p/th, following that early week period of low wind generation. It subsequently maintained its short-term gains due to the resulting increase in gas-for-power demand, arising from low wind. Likewise, December 24 gas was up 7.8% at 106.40p/th, and January 25 gas increased 6.9% to 107.40p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 2.3% on average, while both summer 25 and winter 25 gas increased 6.9% and 1.7% respectively, lifting to 99.13p/th and 98.60p/th. All seasonal power contracts registered gains this week, up on average by 3.8%, as summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 7.1% and 3.2% respectively, rising to £78.20/MWh and £84.20/MWh.
Baseload electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 11.0% to £94.75/MWh, following strong wind generation availability across the latter half of the week, easing reliance on expensive fuelled generation.
- December 24 power climbed 8.5% at £90.45/MWh and January 25 power increased 7.1% to £96/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q125 power moved 6.0% higher to £93.25/MWh.
- The annual April 25 contract rose 5.0% to £81.2/MWh, 16.9% lower than the same time last year (£97.75/MWh).
Peak electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 1.4% to £113.40/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- December 24 peak power gained 4.1% at £105/MWh, and January 25 peak power increased 4.7% to £113.7/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 25 peak power rose 1.6% to £82.62/MWh
- This is 16.0% lower than the same time last year (98.4/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 3.8%.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 7.1% and 3.2% respectively, rising to £78.20/MWh and £84.20/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, up 1.5% on average.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 peak power increased 5.4% and 0.5% respectively, rising to £83.30/MWh and £95.75/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil overall observed bullish movements last week increasing to £74.72/bl, in comparison to the bearish movements seen the previous week, highlighting the ongoing volatility.
- Prices found a bullish sentiment due to concerns that Hurricane Rafael in the US could cause disruptions at oil production facilities. This was also supported by the expectation that Trump would tighten oil sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which would limit supply.
- Bearish movements were however seen during the latter half of the week, due to reports that Hurricane Rafael will begin weakening and will move away from the US. Price losses were also contributed to by data that showed crude oil imports in China fell 9% in October for the sixth consecutive month.
- The recent victory of Donald Trump at the US Election is expected to bring long-term implications on the global oil market. The production of oil is expected to rise, likely leading to price losses, due to higher rates of supply.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Last week represented a relatively stable period for both ETS schemes, with the EU ETS carbon price rising to €65.54/t and the UK ETS carbon price increasing to £38.29/t.
- EU ETS prices decreased during the first half of the week, dropping below €64.5/t, before jumping to €66.3/t on 7 November. This jump followed strong demand for EUAs in the EU-wide auctions with the average bidding volume across the three auctions increasing week-on-week.
- UK ETS carbon saw little movement during the week, with prices hovering around the £38.0/t mark.
- Power demand is set to rise across the autumn, amid falling temperatures and increased pressure for domestic loads. As a result, more expensive forms of power generation may be required, leading to increased ETS prices.
- For the week ahead, prices are expected to decrease due to increased wind generation availability, limiting the requirement for more carbon-intensive generation.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
