Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Last week saw a continued bullish pricing trend, with most tracked wholesale gas and power contracts in GB registering week-on-week price gains. Periods of colder weather conditions and decreased wind power generation kept near-term prices higher last week, while longer-dated contracts have taken price direction from wider movements in international commodity markets. Day-ahead gas rose 6.6% to 133.00p/th, the highest level seen since October 2023. These gains were primarily driven by periods of below-average temperatures across the reporting period, increasing domestic power demand, in turn bolstering the requirement for more expensive forms of power generation like gas-fired generation, alongside reduced Norwegian flows due to maintenance across key gas processing facilities. Similarly, day-ahead power grew 34.8% to £118.64/MWh, finding support from lower wind generation levels encouraging the use of more expensive forms of power generation. Following wider movements in international commodity markets, February 25 gas was up 7.8% to 134.63p/th, and March 25 gas also increased 6.0% to 130.78p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 2.6% on average, while both summer 25 and winter 25 gas increased 5.2% and 3.6% respectively, lifting to 128.40p/th and 120.00p/th. Likewise, all seasonal power contracts grew last week, up on average by 7.3%, as summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 7.3% and 6.3% respectively, rising to £99.00/MWh and £99.30/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 34.8% to £118.64/MWh. Gains at the day-ahead level were supported by periods of lower wind generation acting to support greater levels of gas-fired generation on the system – alongside the Heysham 1-1 nuclear reactor going offline for maintenance.
- February 25 power climbed 15.0% at £122.25/MWh and March 25 power increased 9.3% to £107.45/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q225 power moved 7.7% higher to £99.75/MWh.
- The annual April 25 contract rose 6.8% to £99.15/MWh, 30.9% higher than the same time last year (£75.75/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 7.4% to £147.50/MWh, following its baseload counterpart higher.
- February 25 peak power gained 13.9%, rising to £141.00/MWh, and March 25 peak power increased 8.5% to £115.30/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 25 peak power rose 6.6% to £100.43/MWh.
- This is 36.5% higher than the same time last year (73.58/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 7.3%.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 7.3% and 6.3% respectively, rising to £99.00/MWh and £99.30/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Similarly, all seasonal peak power contracts rose last week, up 6.7% on average.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 peak power increased 6.2% and 6.5% respectively, growing to £104.50/MWh and £114.40/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw a downward adjustment of 2.5% to average $77.17/bl, influenced by growing US oil reserves, and decisions by the Federal Reserve to keep bank interest rates at the same level. This outlines there will be no further weakening of the dollar, putting downwards pressure on prices.
- Traders were also looking ahead to an OPEC+ meeting on 3 February, with potential for the group to increase supply from April, following Donald Trump calling on OPEC+ to lower oil prices last week.
- However, stronger losses were limited after Donald Trump announced tariffs on large markets, such as Canada, China, and Mexico. With a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods, alongside a 10% levy on Chinese products, further market disruption can be expected moving forward.
- The oil market remains highly sensitive to policy decisions, and the introduction of U.S. tariffs on oil imports highlights the importance of closely monitoring policy implementations.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU ETS carbon saw gains across the week, rising 2.0% to average €81.85/t.
- EU ETS prices continue to find support from elevated Dutch TTF prices, as power demand remained strong due to lower levels of wind generation across the continental market, and colder weather conditions. As a result, EU ETS prices rose to the highest level seen since October 2023 on 31 January at €83.76/t.
- UK ETS carbon prices saw substantial week-on-week gains, up 24.6% to average £41.61/t, starting the reporting period at £35.63/t before peaking at £45.66/t on 31 January, the highest level seen since July 2024.
- Prices saw a notable climb from the 28 January following a Financial Times report outlining that Keir Stamer aims to relink the UK and EU ETS, the first official indication of a potential market linkage.
- Linking the two schemes could reduce costs and bureaucracy for businesses, while also limiting further risks of disruption to existing cross-border electricity flows.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
