Headlines
Last week saw bullish movements across gas and power markets, with day-ahead power as the only exception. Day-ahead gas rose 11.2% to 91.20p/th, due to cooler weather boosting overall domestic gas-for-heating demand, coupled with an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East resulting in concerns surrounding gas supply security. Conversely, day-ahead power fell 13.4% to £71.9/MWh, with rises in wind output reducing reliance on more expensive fuelled generation. However, stronger losses in the day-ahead markets were mitigated by higher-than-normal cloud coverage, reducing solar output. October 24 gas was up 10.1% at 91.40p/th, and November 24 gas increased 7.4% to 96.15p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 3.5% on average, while both winter 24 and summer 25 gas increased 6.8% and 4.8% respectively, lifting to 97.63p/th and 91.00p/th. All seasonal power contracts registered gains last week, up on average by 2.8%, as winter 24 and summer 25 expanded 5.1% and 2.5% respectively, rising to £84.00/MWh and £72.00/MWh.
Baseload electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 13.4% to £71.9/MWh, following strong wind outturn easing more expensive fuelled generation.
- October 24 power climbed 9.0% at £76.5/MWh and November 24 power increased 4.9% to £83.5/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q424 power moved 6.2% higher to £80.5/MWh.
- The annual October 24 contract rose 3.9% to £78/MWh, 26.2% lower than the same time last year (£105.75/MWh).
Peak electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 9.6% to £83.75/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- October 24 peak power gained 10.2% at £86.5/MWh, and November 24 peak power increased 3.9% to £100.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 24 peak power rose 2.1% to £90.25/MWh.
- This is 35.4% lower than the same time last year (139.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.8%.
- Winter 24 and summer 25 expanded 5.1% and 2.5% respectively, rising to £84.00/MWh and £72.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All Seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 2.1% on average.
- Winter 24 and summer 25 peak power increased 3.5% and 1.6% respectively, falling to £96.75/MWh and £77.50/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil observed slightly bearish movements last week, opposing the strong upwards movements observed over the previous week.
- At the beginning of the week, brent crude oil prices rose due to an escalation of conflict in the Middle East, leading to concerns that it could impact supply flows.
- These supply concerns were heightened by Storm Helene in the US, with approximately 25% of oil production across the Gulf of Mexico currently impacted.
- Towards the end of the week though, Brent Crude oil prices saw bearish movements, due to re-escalation of concerns over low Chinese demand, despite announcing its largest economic stimulus package since the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Saudi Arabia committed to produce more oil from 1 December to regain market share, which will provide a bearish influence on prices.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- The EU and UK ETS saw opposing price movements last week to the week previous. The EU ETS rose 2.3% to average €65.10/t whilst the UK ETS lost 4.8% to average £38.16/t.
- For the EU ETS, gains were underpinned by a strengthening link to gas prices, amid gas supply interruptions across the US due to Storm Helene and the compliance deadline on 30 September acting to increase last-minute compliance purchases, however stronger gains were limited by heightened coal prices which act to make coal-fired generation less economical.
- UKA prices opposed their European counterpart, following periods of increased renewable generation in the electricity mix, reducing the requirement for gas-fired stations to meet demand.
- Both EU and UK carbon prices are likely to see price support in the coming weeks, as more carbon intensive means of power generation are used to match supply and demand as temperatures fall to below-average.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
