Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most power and gas contracts fell this week, with reduced demand for heating across GB coupled with increased wind generation. Day-ahead gas fell 7.1% to 73.15p/th, following increased levels of renewable generation, and lower demand for heating by fuelled generation assets. Similarly, day-ahead power fell 13.1% to £53.00/MWh, following increased renewable generation, particularly wind which increased outturn by 11.8% week on week. Moreover, the front-month contracts registered losses, as December 25 gas was down 2.5% to 81.05p/th, and January 26 gas decreased 2.7% to 82.53p/th. Likewise, all tracked seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 1.8% on average, as summer 26 gas fell2.5% to 74.60p/th, while winter 26 gas dropped 1.4% to 82.40p/th. Most seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 1.1%, as summer 26 power decreased 1.3% to £70.50/MWh, while winter 26 fell 0.5% to £79.28/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 13.1% to £53.00/MWh, following an increase in wind outturn and decreased heating demand due to mild weather conditions.
- December 25 power slipped 1.4% at £79.53/MWh and January 26 power decreased 0.7% to £87.80/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q126 power moved 1.1% lower to £83.15/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract lost 0.9% to £74.89/MWh, 8.1% higher than the same time last year (£69.25/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 2.3% to £82.00/MWh, opposing the bearish trend in its baseload counterpart.
- December 25 peak power declined 1.8% at £99.83/MWh, and January 26 peak power decreased 0.0% to £109.84/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power fell 0.8% to £79.33/MWh.
- This is 13.7% higher than the same time last year (69.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 1.1%.
- Summer 26 power decreased 1.3% to £70.50/MWh, while winter 26 fell 0.5% to £79.28/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 0.9% on average.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 peak power dropped 1.3% and 0.4% respectively, falling to £72.90/MWh and £95.68/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent crude increased week-on-week, up 2.8%, reaching a peak of $65.95/bl on 27 October, and with a trough of $64.14 on 28 October.
- OPEC+ agreed to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels a day in December, after a virtual meeting on 2 November.
- Within the week, it was reported that the US Federal Reserve had signaled that it could be pausing its rate cuts in December, contributing bearish pressure to oil prices
- Moreover, data shows that the US oil rig count is down 65 year-on-year.
- It was reported that Turkey’s oil refineries are procuring more non-Russian Oil, similarly to India and China, following the recent US sanctions on Russian Oil. These nations are all major buyers of Russian Crude highlighting the strong impact of the recent sanctions from the US, European Union and UK.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both EU and UK ETS prices continued to trend bullishly through the week with the 27 October being the fifth consecutive day of the downward price trend, following the previous reporting period.
- Above season average temperatures with mild weather conditions in Europe eased demand for ETS Carbon, both in Europe and in the UK market. An increase in renewable generation encouraged the switch from fuelled to renewable generation.
- Macroeconomic drivers such as the US oil sanctions against Russia and US-China trade war have resulted in bearish brent crude trends, reflecting in the closely linked EU and UK ETS carbon trends.
- On 28 October, the UK ETS Authority opened a consultation on regional aviation connectivity, seeking views on whether intervention is needed to support regional aviation connectivity in the UL after the end of free allocations for UK ETS aircraft operators in 2026.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight