Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Power and gas contracts saw mixed trends last week, with tight margins from the beginning to mid-week due to a drop in temperatures and heavy reliance on fuelled generation. Day-ahead gas rose 16.4% to 82.03p/th, following minimal wind generation, resulting in high demand for gas-fired generation for power. Day-ahead power rose 58.5% to £103.75/MWh, reflecting trends seen across gas demand, due to increased demand but limited renewable supply as a result of low wind outturn through the reporting period. November 25 gas was up 1.2% at 81.75p/th, and December 25 gas increased 0.5% to 83.80p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 0.4% on average. Summer 26 gas increased 0.2% to 76.58p/th, while Winter 26 gas dropped 0.5% to 84.08p/th. Most seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 0.7%, as Summer 26 power decreased 0.6% to £71.90/MWh, while Winter 26 power fell 1.0% to £80.65/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 58.5% to £103.75/MWh, following tight margins across GB as cooler temperatures and limited wind generation occurred through the period.
- November 25 power climbed 1.3% to £82.80/MWh and December 25 power increased 0.3% to £80.83/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q126 power moved 0.8% higher to £84.00/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract lost 0.8% to £76.28/MWh, 6.1% higher than the same time last year (£71.88/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 11.3% to £105.75/MWh, following the bullish trend in its baseload counterpart.
- November 25 peak power gained 1.1% to £101.8/MWh, and December 25 peak power increased 0.1% to £99.33/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Annual April 26 peak power rose 0.7% to £80.77/MWh.
- This is 10.27% higher than the same time last year (£73.25/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 0.7%.
- Summer 26 power decreased 0.6% to £71.90/MWh, while the Winter 26 contract fell 1.0% to £80.65/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 0.7% on average.
- Summer 26 and Winter 26 peak power dropped 0.5% and 0.8% respectively, falling to £74.20/MWh and £97.10/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent crude oil decreased week-on-week, down 1.1%, reaching a peak of$63.26/bl on 28 November, and with a trough of $62.13/bl on 25 November.
- The bearish trend followed increasing global oversupply, not met with sufficiently increasing demand.
- On 25 November, oil prices fell by 2% as rumours of the US-supported Ukraine-Russia peace deal sparked conversation of the easing of Western sanctions on Russian oil trade. A peace deal may allow Russia to hit its agreed OPEC+ volume, contributing to high global output.
- Brent crude oil is forecast to reverse its bearish trend following news that OPEC+ will suspend expected increases in production in Q1 2026, following rumours that a global oversupply in 2026 will cause prices to continue falling through to 2027.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU ETS saw a 1.6% increase last week, to an average of €81.89/t, whilst UK ETS saw an increase of 0.8%, with a weekly average price of £57.88/t.
- Temperatures across Europe remained mild during the reporting period, however with rumours of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, the potential recirculation of Russian fossil fuels has applied bearish pressure to both the UK and EU ETS prices, due to their nature to reflect trends in the gas market.
- A forecasted calm and cold spell across the UK and Europe across the next week is expected to increase demand for fuelled generation, to meet heating demand. Tis increased demand may be reflected in demand for both EU and UK Carbon Credits, applying bullish pressure to prices.
- On 27 November, the European Commission proposed tightening the Market Stability Reserve for the EU’s planned carbon market for buildings and road transport fuels (ETS2).
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight