Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Tracked power and gas contracts broadly moved in opposition over the reporting period, with gas contracts registering a broadly bearish trend, with power contracts seeing an overall bullish trend. Day-ahead gas fell 5.8% to 110.25p/th, mostly due to the stronger stability seen across the US-Iran conflict over the week. Markets reacted bearishly to reported that a deal to extend the ceasefire and begin nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran were close, with multiple sources reporting that deal would involve reopening the Strait of Hormuz to unrestricted shipping. Conversely, day-ahead power rose 7.9% to £114.75/MWh, amid several nuclear reactor outages, all expected to remain offline until mid-June. Due to tighter fuelled generation margins, reductions in wind boosted baseload power exposure to gas market volatility, with lower levels of wind in the week’s latter half weighing bullishly on short-term prices. June 26 gas was down 3.8% at 112.63p/th, and July 26 gas decreased 3.8% at 112.08p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 1.6% on average, as both winter 26 and summer 27 gas dropped 3.8% and 1.5% respectively, subsiding to 114.95p/th and 84.35p/th. Conversely, most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 0.7%, as winter 26 power decreased 0.9% to £100.75/MWh, while summer 27 expanded 2.6% to £76.75/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 7.9% to £114.75/MWh, with reductions in wind generation in the week’s latter half, boosting exposure to gas market volatility.
- June 26 power climbed 0.3% at £100.50/MWh and July 26 power remained flat at £100.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q326 power was flat at £99.00/MWh.
- The annual October 26 contract rose 0.6% to £88.75/MWh, 23.7% higher than the same time last year (£71.73/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 7.3% to £101.00/MWh, in opposition to its baseload counterpart.
- June 26 peak power was static at £98.00/MWh, and July 26 peak power decreased 2.1% to £97.90/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 26 peak power rose 1.0% to £97.25/MWh
- This is 2.9% higher than the same time last year (94.50/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 0.7%.
- Winter 26 power decreased 0.9% to £100.75/MWh, while summer 27 expanded 2.6% to £76.75/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts saw gains last week, up 1.2% on average.
- Winter 26 gas dropped 0.3% to £118.50/MWh, while summer 27 peak power increased 3.0% to £78.25/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Last week reversed the recent bullish market trend, with Brent crude oil dropping 10.0% to $96.67/bl.
- Oil prices rose last Monday as renewed tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions. The gains came after the US and Iran exchanged attacks over the weekend, fueling fears that the conflict could spill over into key energy-producing and shipping regions.
- However, Trump noted early Monday that Iran is seeking an agreement with the US and expressed confidence that ongoing negotiations would produce a favorable outcome.
- Trump noted that US-Iran relations are becoming “much more professional and productive”. These developments raised expectations that the two countries could be moving toward an understanding that would allow the Strait of Hormuz to regain full functionality and ensure uninterrupted oil supplies.
- However, oil flows through the Strait may take months to return to normal until repairs to damaged oil and gas facilities are completed.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Across the week, both EU and UK ETS carbon prices registered gains, UK ETS prices increased by 11.2% to average £57.67/t and EU ETS rose 4.5% higher to €79.10/t.
- Strong gains were seen across both EU and UK ETS carbon prices across the reporting period, with EU ETS carbon prices rising to €80.47 on 29 May, the highest level seen since 9 February 2026, as heatwave conditions across Europe led to higher cooling demand, alongside greater coal-switching.
- Likewise, UK ETS carbon prices rose to £58.73/t on 29 May, the highest level seen since 4 February 2026, with the EUA-UKA spread narrowing, and it is expected to tighten further ahead of July where progress on linking the two schemes is set to be discussed.
- On 29 May, the European Commission published the 2025 Total Number of Allowances in Circulation at around 1.0 million allowances, indicating that the EU ETS remains in surplus but has moved out of the highest surplus band of 1.1 million allowances, resulting in a bullish impact on the market
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight