Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most power and gas contracts rose this week, due to increased system demand coupled with strong losses in wind output. Day-ahead gas rose 3.8% to 75.90p/th, supported by concerns over European supply levels and increased domestic demand due to a cooler weather condition. Day-ahead power rose 65.7% to £87.80/MWh, driven by low wind outputs in the latter half of the week, and an extension to the Hartlepool-1 reactor outage, limiting system supply margins. Moreover, front-month power contracts registered gains, with December 25 baseload up 1.7% and peak up 0.9%. Meanwhile, back-month contracts for baseload and peak power are registering losses through until S27. December 25 gas was down 0.1% at 81.00p/th, and January 26 gas increased 0.3% to 82.75p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 0.3% on average, while both summer 26 and winter 26 gas increased 0.7% and 0.3% respectively, lifting to 75.10p/th and 82.65p/th. All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 0.1%, as summer 26 power decreased 0.1% to £70.45/MWh, while winter 26 fell 0.0% to £79.25/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 65.7% to £87.80/MWh, driven by low wind outputs resulting in increased reliance on more expensive gas-fired generation.
- December 25 power climbed 1.7% at £80.85/MWh and January 26 power increased 0.4% to £88.15/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q126 power moved 1.1% higher to £84.03/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract lost 0.1% to £74.85/MWh, 5.6% higher than the same time last year (£70.88/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 15.2% to £94.45/MWh, following trends seen across its baseload counterparts.
- December 25 peak power gained 0.9% at £100.75/MWh, and January 26 peak power decreased 2.9% to £106.70/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power rose 2.2% to £77.58/MWh.
- This is 12.76% higher than the same time last year (68.80/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 0.1%.
- Summer 26 power decreased 0.1% to £70.45/MWh, while winter 26 fell 0.0% to £79.25/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 2.3% on average.
- Summer 26 and Winter 26 peak power dropped 2.3% and 1.4% respectively, falling to £71.20/MWh and £94.35/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent crude decreased week-on-week, down 1.5%, reaching a peak of $65.18/bl on 3 November, and with a trough of $63.02/bl on 6 November.
- The Russia-Ukraine war continued to support bullish pressure on Brent crude oil prices, as sanctions maintain a tightened supply and fuel geopolitical uncertainty.
- On 7 November, Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orban met with President Trump at the White House – with discussions resulting in Hungary being excluded from Russian Oil and Gas sanctions for a year.
- Switzerland-based oil trading company Gunvor Group announced it has withdrawn its offer to purchase the international assets of Russian energy company Lukoil – it announced the offer withdrawal was actioned in compliance with sanctions and publicly condemned the Russia-Ukraine war.
- OPEC+ announced it will be pausing any further production increases from January to March 2026.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both EU and UK ETS prices continued to trend bullishly throughout the week, averaging at €81.01/t and £57.19/t respectively across the week, as colder temperatures across the UK and Europe contributed to increased fuelled generation demand and thus increased demand for UK and EU ETS Carbon credits.
- Following the publication of the revised Carbon Budget 6, the Clean Power targets by 2030 have been reinforced, reflected in usual demand and competitive trading for UK ETS credits.
- The United States has urged Europe to continue shifting reliance to US oil and gas as opposed to renewables, as the US has become Europe’s top oil and gas supplier following the shift away from Russian supplies. This in turn could increase demand for EU ETS carbon credits, supporting a bullish trend.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight