Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Day-ahead power prices have seen strong fluctuations over the reporting period as volatile geopolitical developments impacted NBP gas prices, and periods of low wind outturn and a cold-snap across GB bolstered gas-for-power demand. As a result of tight system margins due to low wind generation, day-ahead power prices reached £119.55/MWh on 7 January, the highest level seen since February 2025. However, despite this volatility, prices have trended bearish week-on-week. Day-ahead gas fell 7.5% to 73.20p/th, despite a cold snap acting to lower gas storage stocks across the European continent. While typically this would have a larger impact on prices across GB and the EU, the scope has been limited by record high U.S. LNG production as the continent can readily call upon other sources rather than relying on gas storage stocks. Day-ahead power fell 32.8% to £76.00/MWh, due to improving temperature forecasts and wind generation expectations limiting total gas demand on 12 January. February 26 gas was down 2.4% at 73.33p/th, and March 26 gas decreased 2.3% to 68.68p/th. All seasonal gas contracts saw losses last week, down by 4.2% on average, as both summer 26 and winter 26 gas dropped 3.4% and 4.1% respectively, subsiding to 64.45p/th and 69.08p/th. All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 2.4%, as summer 26 power decreased 2.9% to £70.00/MWh, while winter 26 fell 3.1% to £75.50/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 32.8% to £76.00/MWh, following milder weather forecasts and stronger wind outturn expectations.
- February 26 power slipped 1.0% to £83.00/MWh and March 26 power decreased 2.0% to £73.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q226 power moved 3.5% lower to £69.95/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract lost 3.0% to £72.75/MWh, 2.2% lower than the same time last year (£74.38/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 24.6% to £98.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- February 26 peak power declined 2.3% to £95.00/MWh, and March 26 peak power decreased 2.0% to £81.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power contract rose 2.9% to £76.67/MWh.
- This is 2.6% higher than the same time last year (£74.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 2.4%.
- Summer 26 power decreased 2.9% to £70.00/MWh, while winter 26 fell 3.1% to £75.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 2.8% on average.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 peak power dropped 3.0% and 3.6% respectively, falling to £71.90/MWh and £90.55/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw minor loses week-on-week, averaging $61.54/bl, despite the current developments in Venezuela.
- Venezuela is known for having the largest proven oil reserves on the globe, exceeding 300 million barrels. The U.S. military capture of Venezuelan President Maduro had a limited immediate impact on the market due to ample global oil supply – however it is set to lower prices into the future as supply increases.
- Meanwhile on 4 January, the OPEC+ group agreed to keep output levels unchanged, adding to downward pressure on prices as supply remains ample and demand growth subdued.
- Trump previously stated on 3 January that the U.S. would be strongly involved in Venezuela’s oil sector moving forward with firms expected to repair oil infrastructure with investments worth billions of dollars and revive production – with Trump expecting between 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to be delivered to the U.S.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both UK and EU ETS prices trended bullishly through the reporting period, with the UK ETS rising by 1.5% to average £68.43/t, and the EU ETS lifting by 0.6% to average €88.22/t.
- Higher prices across the reporting period were supported by tightened system margins across both GB and the EU as a cold-snap bolstered gas-fired generation rates across major demand centres alongside reduced rates of wind generation on the European and GB systems.
- Similarly, the overall carbon supply is tighter in 2026 compared to 2025 due to lower year-on-year auction volumes following a tighter emissions cap and the cancellation of maritime-sector-related allowances.
- Looking ahead in relation to the development in Venezuela, the long-term outcome depends on political stability as Venezuela’s production may rise over time if a pro-market government takes control. However, prolonged instability would restrict output and support higher prices across the carbon market.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight