Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
The majority of power and gas contracts registered gains last week, with some exceptions for the day-ahead and front month contracts. Day-ahead power rose 5.3% to £83.13/MWh, due to forecasts of rising LNG demand from key Asian nations, increasing competition for the commodity and likely rising prices, although further gains were limited by strong wind generation forecasts for the week ahead. Conversely, day-ahead gas fell 6.4% to 74.73p/th, following expectations of above-average temperatures in the week ahead, reducing gas-for-heating requirements as we move into the summer delivery period. June 25 gas was up 4.5% at 82.78p/th, and July 25 gas increased 4.7% to 82.13p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 3.2% on average, while both winter 25 and summer 26 gas increased 4.4% and 4.8% respectively, lifting to 93.10p/th and 80.80p/th. All seasonal power contracts registered gains last week, up on average by 2.4%, as winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 3.2% and 2.7% respectively, rising to £84.30/MWh and £71.20/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 5.3% to £83.13/MWh, following forecasts of increased LNG demand.
- June 25 power slipped 2.5% to £72.5/MWh and July 25 power decreased 1.3% to £72.40/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q325 power moved 3.1% higher to £77.90/MWh.
- The annual October 25 contract rose 2.9% to £77.75/MWh, 5.8% higher than the same time last year (£73.48/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 4.9% to £73.75/MWh, opposing its baseload counterpart.
- June 25 peak power declined 2.6% to £74.50/MWh, and July 25 peak power decreased 0.7% to £75.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power contract rose 3.1% to £89.60/MWh.
- This is 6.4% lower than the same time last year (£95.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.4%.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 power lifted 3.2% and 2.7% respectively, rising to £84.30/MWh and £71.20/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts saw gains last week, up 3.1% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power increased 3.1% and 3.4% respectively, increasing to £99.50/MWh and £74.20/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Last week continued the downward adjustment across Brent crude, easing 1.4% to average $62.50/bl.
- Brent crude prices remained subdued across the reporting period, remaining below $64.00/bl consistently throughout the week as the OPEC+ decision by eight members to boost output continues to influence market sentiment with regards to oversupply.
- However, prices found some support from improving relations between China and the US, with talks around the easing of tariffs providing greater certainty as to economic conditions across the two countries.
- On 12 May, The US and China agreed to drastically roll back tariffs for an initial 90-day period. By 14 May, the US will temporarily lower its tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its levies on American imports from 125% to 10%, according to the joint statement.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- UK ETS carbon prices remained above £50.00/t across the reporting period, reaching a high of £52.00/t on 7 May, the highest level seen since October 2023. EU ETS prices also saw gains of 6.5%, rising to €70.79/t.
- UK ETS carbon prices found support across the week following reduced wind generation acting to increase reliance on more carbon intensive forms of power generation, with EU ETS gains influenced by increased Dutch TTF prices.
- Both carbon markets also found bullish influence from firmer discussions of a UK-EU ETS linkage later in May.
- Energy UK published a press release calling for both the EU and UK to commit to linking their carbon pricing schemes and enhancing energy cooperation. Energy UK states that a larger, unified carbon market would lead to greater predictability and less volatility for UK industries covered by the Emissions Trading Scheme, as well as exempting UK exporters from upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism payments.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
