Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Overall, similarly to last week, geopolitical developments remained the key driver for gas contracts, with prices declining amid signs of easing tensions. In contrast, power prices moved higher over the period, primarily driven by reduced wind generation. Day-ahead gas fell 14.1% to 110.79p/th, following the announcement from the Pakistan’s Prime Minister that a two-week ceasefire to the US/Iran conflict had been agreed and would be effective immediately. This suggestion that the conflict may be nearing an end reduced near‑term geopolitical risk premiums, driving a short‑term bearish reaction in gas prices. Conversely, day-ahead power rose 41.6% to £106.75/MWh, due to a drop in wind generation week on week. May 26 gas was down 12.9% at 110.00p/th, and June 26 gas decreased 13.1% at 108.20p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 12.2% on average. Both winter 26 and summer 27 gas dropped 13.3% and 12.1% respectively, subsiding to 110.48p/th and 82.40p/th. Likewise, all seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 9.4%, as winter 26 power decreased 10.3% to £91.00/MWh, while summer 27 fell 10.3% to £70.50/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 41.6% to £106.75/MWh, predominantly due to a continued drop in wind generation week on week, boosting reliance on more expensive fuelled generation.
- May 26 power slipped 11.3% at £86.00/MWh, and June 26 power decreased 9.2% to £91.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q326 power moved 9.4% lower to £89.25/MWh.
- The annual October 26 contract lost 10.3% to £80.75/MWh, which was 4.2% lower than the same time last month (£84.25/MWh), and 12.9% higher than the same time last year (£71.50/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 7.2% to £97.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart higher.
- May 26 peak power declined 11.1% at £88.25/MWh, and June 26 peak power decreased 8.8% to £93.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 26 peak power rose 9.5% to £90.25/MWh, 2.2% lower than the same time last month (92.31/MWh), and 4.75 lower than the same time last year (£94.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 9.4%. Winter 26 power decreased 10.3% to £91.00/MWh, while summer 27 fell 10.3% to £70.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 9.7% on average.
- Both winter 26 and summer 27 peak power dropped 8.0% and 11.7% respectively, falling to £110.00/MWh and £71.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw losses across the reporting period, falling 7.3% to average $101.73, and dropped below $100.00/bl for the first time in two weeks, and reached a monthly low of $93.45/bl. This came following President Trump announcing that a two-week mutual ceasefire with Iran had been agreed on the condition that the Strait of Hormuz was fully reopened.
- However, despite the ceasefire, tanker traffic through the Strait remained below normal levels, with reports of stranded vessels and tighter maritime controls.
- Similarly, lower prices were also driven by reports that Saudi energy facilities, including the East-West pipeline, have recovered and their operational capacity has been restored.
- However, oil prices rose on Thursday as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and escalating Israeli strikes on Lebanon heightened concerns over regional supply, despite the temporary ceasefire.
- Moreover, President Trump stated the US will maintain a strong military presence in and around Iran until a “real agreement” is fully implemented, warning of a massive response if commitments are not upheld.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Across GB, UK ETS carbon prices moved higher, rising 2.7% to £42.43/t, as temperatures dropped and wind generation remained subdued, increasing reliance on more carbon intensive forms of power generation.
- EU ETS carbon prices remained level week-on-week, falling marginally by 0.2% to €72.25/t as traders are cautious to push prices higher or lower due to ongoing market volatility regarding the US-Iran ceasefire.
- However, verified 2025 EU ETS emissions declined again, reinforcing the long-term tightening trend and adding some bearish pressure.
- The European Commission’s newly released 2025 verified EU ETS data shows a 1.3% year on year decline in emissions
- The continued structural decline in industrial and power sector emissions may strengthen downside pressure on EUAs.
- Temperatures across Europe are set to remain elevated out to the end of the week, resulting in bearish expectations moving forward. Moreover, the residual load across Europe continues to decline amid steady solar output and warmer weather conditions.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight