Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Day-ahead gas rose 4.9% to 70.24p/th, with support across the week driven by reduced optimism surrounding a peace deal on the war in Ukraine. However, these gains were limited by consistent rates of wind outturn, easing reliance on CCGT generation and supply margins in general. Day-ahead power rose 33.2% to £80.48/MWh, with a strong upward trend in the week’s latter half, rising to over £80.00/MWh on both 11 and 12 December as outages at Hartlepool Reactors 1 and 2 were extended until late December, increasing reliance on more expensive forms of power generation in the short-term. January 26 gas was up 2.3% at 72.65p/th, and February 26 gas increased 1.9% to 71.85p/th. However, all seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 1.3% on average, while summer 26 and winter 26 gas both dropped 0.6%, subsiding to 64.48p/th and 70.70p/th. Most seasonal contracts saw gains last week; however, the overall trend was a loss on average by 0.1%. Summer 26 power expanded 0.6% to £66.88/MWh, while winter 26 drove the bearish trend and fell 1.6% to £73.65/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 33.2% to £80.48/MWh, following unexpected extensions to on-going nuclear outages, increasing reliance on more expensive fuelled generation.
- January 26 power climbed 4.3% to £82.15/MWh and February 26 power increased 0.6% to £78.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q126 power moved 2.0% higher to £76.90/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract lost 0.6% to £70.27/MWh, 1.5% higher than the same time last year (£69.25/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 3.0% to £86.33/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- January 26 peak power gained 2.3% to £99.50/MWh, and February 26 peak power increased 0.5% to £96.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power contract rose 0.2% to £75.17/MWh.
- This is 5.87% higher than the same time last year (£71.00/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts saw gains last week; however, the overall trend was a loss on average by 0.1%.
- Summer 26 power expanded 0.6% to £66.88/MWh, while winter 26 drove the bearish trend and fell 1.6% to £73.65/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 0.3% on average.
- Summer 26 peak power increased 1.1% to £69.38/MWh, while winter 26 peak power dropped 0.9% to £90.25/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw a decrease week-on-week, with prices falling to a low of $61.05/bl on 11 December; the lowest level seen since February 2021, weighed primarily by persistent concerns over global oil demand and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy path.
- Moreover, reduced trading activity ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays, as well as traders being cautious about deploying risk after a harder year for profits following the ongoing tariff war further contributed to the losses seen.
- However, stronger losses were limited as escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela could lead to supply disruptions.
- U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed last week that his administration seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela as tensions with President Nicolas Maduro continue to escalate.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Similar to the week previous, mixed movements were seen across the reporting period, with EU ETS carbon increasing while UK ETS carbon decreased, a somewhat unexpected trend given the previous talks to link the two carbon trading schemes, a move which would see UK ETS carbon prices increase in the run-up.
- UK ETS carbon fell to the lowest level seen since October 2025 at £55.67/t on 10 December as strong wind generation from Storm Bram led to reduced reliance on more carbon intensive forms of power generation.
- Colder weather, higher Dutch TTF prices, and reduced expectations of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal led to EU ETS carbon prices reaching the highest level seen since October 2023 at €83.93/t on 11 December.
- UK ETS carbon prices are expected to remain within the £54.00-£59.00 price range in the coming weeks, supported by the net-long positions of investment funds, and a decrease in activity from the UKA auction schedule over the holiday period.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight