Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Day-ahead gas fell 3.0% to 114.66p/th, despite prices remaining elevated across the week, amid escalations of threats between the US and Iran of continued conflict. However, the risk premium associated with the conflict in the Middle East is set to reduce drastically as, on 15 June, the US and Iran agreed a framework deal to end the war, which mediator Pakistan says will be signed on Friday in Switzerland. Day-ahead power fell 22.0% to £78.42/MWh, despite price gains seen in the weeks first half, due to reduced nuclear generation availability across GB, with several reactors offline. However, following strong gains in wind generation outturn in the week’s latter half, driving out fuelled generation from the merit order, prices saw strong losses due to the stronger renewable outturn. July 26 gas was down 4.9% at 111.45p/th, and August 26 gas decreased 4.6% to 112.03p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 1.2% on average, while both winter 26 and summer 27 gas dropped 2.4% and 1.2% respectively, subsiding to 116.95p/th and 84.50p/th. All seasonal power contracts registered losses last week, down on average by 3.1%, as winter 26 power decreased 1.3% to £101.75/MWh, while summer 27 fell 4.0% to £74.75/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 22.0% to £78.42/MWh, following strong wind outturn in the week’s latter half, placing strong bearish pressure on day-ahead prices.
- July 26 power slipped 5.2% at £97.75/MWh and August 26 power decreased 4.9% to £96.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q326 power moved 4.1% lower to £97.68/MWh.
- The annual October 26 contract lost 2.5% to £88.25/MWh, 15.7% higher than the same time last year (£76.25/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 2.9% to £108.00/MWh, in opposition to its baseload counterpart.
- July 26 peak power declined 4.4% to £97.50/MWh, and August 26 peak power decreased 3.7% to £96.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 26 peak power contract rose 1.5% to £96.75/MWh
- This is 2.3% lower than the same time last year (£99.00/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 3.1%.
- Winter 26 power decreased 1.3% to £101.75/MWh, while summer 27 fell 4.0% to £74.75/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts saw losses last week, down 1.6% on average.
- Winter 26 and summer 27 peak power dropped 0.4% and 1.6% respectively, falling to £120.00/MWh and £77.75/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil registered losses last week, dropping 4.0% to $91.69/bl, starting the week at its highest level of $94.55/bl before steadily decreasing to $86.99/bl by 12 June, the lowest level seen since the start of March 2026.
- Oil prices remained supported at the beginning of the week by escalating tensions in the Middle East, with threats from Donald Trump outlining that the US will “take Kharg Island” a key hub for Iranian oil.
- Following this, seven OPEC+ members agreed to raise oil production by a combined 188,000bpd in July, in line with market expectations.
- As the week progressed, prices saw a decrease as the Prime Minister of Pakistan announced that the US and Iran reached a peace agreement following intensive negotiations, with both sides declaring an immediate and permanent end to military operations across all fronts.
- Trump also said that an agreement with Iran had been finalised and said he was authorizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of a US naval blockade.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Throughout the week, both EU and UK ETS carbon prices saw losses. UK ETS prices decreased by 0.4% to average £55.75/t and EU ETS dropped 1.5% lower to €77.07/t.
- The summer delivery period acts to reduce overall heating demand, and thus demand for more carbon intensive forms of power generation.
- While UK ETS carbon prices saw a decrease, prices are set to continue rising out to 2027 as the divergence between EU and UK prices narrows following discussions to relink the two schemes.
- The peace deal between the US and Iran is a bullish driver for carbon in the week ahead, both because it will lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and will be bullish for equities markets globally.
- However, stronger gains will be limited by a rise in expected generation from wind-power in the week ahead, particularly across GB, acting to reduce reliance on carbon-intensive forms of power generation.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight