Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
All tracked short-term power and gas contracts registered a downward trend over the reporting period, due to strong short-term bearish fundamentals. Day-ahead gas fell 10.3% to 80.25p/th, following a combination of milder weather forecasts and strong wind generation outturn, easing both domestic heating and gas-for-power demand. Longer term contracts also traded bearishly, with prospects of new LNG projects expected to drive a 10% boost in global LNG supply across 2026, shifting from market tightness to excess supply. Day-ahead power also fell 11.3% to £77.56/MWh, predominantly due to the sharp rise in wind outturn easing gas-for-power demand, reducing reliance on more expensive fuelled generation. Additionally, the return of Hartlepool 1 reactor acted to assist in easing system supply margins, providing further bearish support. March 26 gas was down 9.1% at 75.85p/th, and April 26 gas decreased 6.3% to 73.93p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 1.5% on average, while both summer 26 and winter 26 gas dropped 4.1% and 2.3% respectively, subsiding to 72.05p/th and 76.73p/th. All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 6.3%, as summer 26 power decreased 8.3% to £66.78/MWh, while winter 26 fell 7.0% to £73.00/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 11.3% to £77.56/MWh, following strong wind outturn and mild weather.
- March 26 power slipped 11.8% at £74.13/MWh and April 26 power decreased 9.4% to £68.83/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q226 power moved 8.4% lower to £67.00/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract lost 7.7% to £69.89/MWh, 11.0% lower than the same time last year (£78.54/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 19.8% to £84.25/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- March 26 peak power declined 10.6% at £80.43/MWh, and April 26 peak power decreased 10.9% to £69.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power rose 6.1% to £72.20/MWh
- This is 15.0% lower than the same time last year (84.95/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 6.3%.
- Summer 26 power decreased 8.3% to £66.78/MWh, while winter 26 fell 7.0% to £73.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 6.1% on average.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 peak power dropped 7.7% and 6.1% respectively, falling to £67.80/MWh and £87.30/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw an upward trend over the reporting period, rising 2.3% to average $68.81/t.
- The price of the commodity is not only responding to supply and demand fundamentals in the market, but also to political and military developments, meaning further price movements will be dictated by diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran.
- Moreover, Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA rejected the sale of Venezuelan oil to companies without individual U.S. licenses, leading to a reduction in exports, limiting the depletion of Venezuelan oil stockpiles.
- Currently, expectations surrounding the return of Russian supply have increased as the Kremlin announced on 12 January that it would be holding of another round of negotiations with Ukraine to reach a peace agreement to end the war between the two countries.
- Looking ahead market sources outlined that the OPEC+ group is set to resume production quota increases starting in April after the next meeting scheduled on 1 March.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU and UK ETS carbon continued their bearish trends with EU ETS carbon decreasing 5.7% to €76.67/t and UK ETS carbon fell 16.9% to £50.24/t.
- Policy developments were the dominant drivers across the week, with growing political uncertainty around CBAM exemptions and the EU Parliament’s debates on net‑neutrality creating a bearish backdrop for long‑term carbon prices.
- The European Commission has stated that if a sector is exempt from the CBAM, then these producers would continue to receive free allocation, reducing supply tightness in the market.
- Moreover, the news on free allocation, the prospect of the upcoming Market Stability Reserve review, and a potential softening to the Linear Reduction Factor led to further bearish adjustments in the market across the week.
- Likewise, Poland has urged the European Commission to lower ETS costs by capping allowance prices, slowing the emissions‑cap reduction, and delaying the phase‑out of free allowances until the carbon border tax proves effective.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight