Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most power and gas contracts rose last week, finding influence from recent geopolitical tensions between Isreal and Iran, maintenance at both GB and French nuclear power stations and lower levels of wind generation coupled with above average temperatures acting to increase demand for gas-fired generation. As a result, day-ahead gas rose 5.0% to 90.50p/th. Day-ahead power rose 19.0% to £87.75/MWh, due to notably above-average temperatures across GB, increasing demand for cooling appliances, while also finding influence from the bullish movements seen across its gas counterpart. Moreover, July 25 gas was up 4.4% at 88.70p/th, and August 25 gas increased 4.0% to 89.88p/th. Likewise, all seasonal gas contract prices increased last week, up by 2.8% on average, with both winter 25 and summer 26 gas increasing 3.9% and 2.8% respectively, lifting to 98.80p/th and 86.00p/th. Similarly, all seasonal power contracts saw gains last week, up on average by 4.9%, as winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 5.2% and 4.2% respectively, rising to £90.75/MWh and £75.75/MWh. Longer-dated contracts were driven higher by concerns of weaker economic health, as the World Bank cut its global growth forecasts, raising concerns of added costs to energy bills and economic uncertainty
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 19.0% to £87.75/MWh, following a period of above-average temperatures across GB, increasing demand for cooling appliances, while also finding influence from the bullish movements seen across its gas counterpart
- July 25 power climbed 6.6% at £81.25/MWh and August 25 power increased 6.3% to £80.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q325 power moved 6.4% higher to £83.25/MWh.
- The annual October 25 contract rose 4.7% to £83.25/MWh, 7.1% higher than the same time last year (£77.75/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 5.8% to £78.50/MWh driven by higher solar output over the peak period, and in turn lower marginal generator costs.
- July 25 peak power gained 5.0% at £83.25/MWh, and August 25 peak power increased 6.6% to £84.5/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power rose 4.1% to £94.5/MWh
- This is 6% lower than the same time last year (100.5/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Seasonal power contracts rose last week, up on average by 4.1%.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 4.9% and 4.0% respectively, rising to £106.25/MWh and £78.25/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts increased last week, up 4.9% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power increased 5.2% and 4.2% respectively, rising to £90.75/MWh and £75.75/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Across the reporting period, Brent crude oil rose on average 5.3%, reaching the highest level seen since 3 April at $69.14/bl on 12 June.
- Following a breakdown in diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran over Iran’s nuclear program, prices found support from the subsequent airstrikes on Iran, which have heightened concerns over potential oil supply disruptions from the Middle East – an OPEC member and one of the largest oil producing regions on the globe.
- Alongside this, increased optimism regarding US-China trade relations added further upward momentum to prices by heightening expectations of stronger demand among market participants.
- In addition, we also saw that Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the ban on oil and petroleum products sale to companies and countries complying with Western price cap on Russian oil out to 31 December 2025.
- Despite the expectations of rising global inventories, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised up its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast, forecasting the average price for Brent crude across 2025 to sit at $65.97/bl. The report indicates that the uncertainty surrounding price forecasts remains, citing forest fires in
- Canada, the Russia-Ukraine war, potential disruptions in Libya, and OPEC+ production cuts as price drivers.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU ETS carbon prices carbon prices have found strong influence from conflicts in the Middle East as carbon markets correlate closely with oil.
- Israeli airstrikes have led to concerns over oil supply, which has driven up prices in both markets with the EU ETS carbon price reaching €75.70/t on 12 June – the highest level seen since February 2025.
- In addition, further inspections on French nuclear sites following an outage at the Civaux French power plant continue to support European gas, power and carbon prices as the prospects of a lower French nuclear capacity over the summer rise.
- UK ETS carbon prices also recorded gains across the reporting period as dry and warm conditions across Europe lead to increased demand for carbon-intensive cooling appliances. The high-pressure weather system is expected to dominate in the continent into next week, but gains may be limited by areas of strong solar generation
- Looking ahead, concerns around French nuclear reliability and signals from the EU on potential CBAM expansion have bullish impacts on future market sentiment
- Likewise, sustained above-average temperatures in the week ahead, alongside weaker wind generation projections across GB will act to increase reliance on more carbon-intensive forms of power generation
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
