Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Last week, short-term loses were supported by higher wind outturn, while long-term contracts saw very mild bullish support due to continued geopolitical uncertainty with the escalation of tensions and conflict between the US and Iran. Day-ahead gas prices saw a 5.2% fall, following from a week which saw the highest price seen since January 2023. This was supported by President Trump stating that that the war in Iran would be over “very soon” and increased wind generation. As wind output rose, day-ahead power fell 51.1% to £57.34/MWh, driven by decreased reliance on CCGT units and more expensive fuel‑based generation. Wind generation peaked on the generation mix at a daily average of 58.5% on 11 March, and remained relatively high, above seasonal norms. April 26 gas was down 4.3% at 128.90p/th, and May 26 gas decreased 3.4% at 127.30p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 2.3% on average, summer 26 gas dropped 0.8% to 123.73p/th, while winter 26 gas increased 1.6% to 120.23p/th. Most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 0.9%. Summer 26 power decreased 2.1% to £95.00/MWh, while winter 26 expanded 0.1% to £96.50/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 51.1% to £57.34/MWh, following a rise in wind generation and relative stable demand
- April 26 power slipped 5.6% at £96.25/MWh, and May 26 power decreased 4.0% to £95.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q226 power moved 3.4% lower to £95.75/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract lost 1.0% to £95.75/MWh, which was 37.0% higher than the same time last month (£69.89/MWh), and 30.3% higher than the same time last year (£73.50/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 3.9% to £107.00/MWh, following a rise in wind output and decreased demand.
- April 26 peak power declined 5.1% to £96.43/MWh, and May 26 peak power decreased 3.8% to £95.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power fell 0.2% to £93.98/MWh, 30.2% lower than the same time last month (72.20/MWh), and 26.15% higher than the same time last year (£74.50/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 0.9%.
- Summer 26 power decreased 2.1% to £95.00/MWh, while winter 26 expanded 0.1% to £96.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 0.2% on average.
- Summer 26 peak power dropped 1.9% to £95.85/MWh, while winter 26 peak power increased 1.0% to £112.90/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw significant gains as the week progressed, starting at $78.54/bl, which was already the highest level since January 2025, before rising to $90.88/bl by 6 March, the highest level since October 2023
- Bahrain’s state-owned energy company Bapco said it declared force majeure, after its operations were disrupted by war in the Middle East and a recent attack on its refinery
- On 9 March, oil prices passed $100.00/bl for the first time since 2022, prompting the G7 nations to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the economic impact of the US-Israel war with Iran, including the rising price of oil
- However, stronger gains were limited as the US issued a temporary 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil. It was noted that the waiver was intentionally short-term and limited to transactions involving shipments already stranded at sea, meaning it would not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government, while maintaining global supply
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both EU and UK ETS carbon prices continued to see losses across the reporting period, with EU ETS carbon dropping to €68.35/t on 12 March, while UK ETS carbon fell to £39.16/t on 12 March too, the lowest price seen since April 2025 and March 2025 respectively.
- The decline in EUA prices last week was driven by rumours of a possible extension of free allocations for industry and a potential loosening of Market Stability Reserve (MSR) rules. These developments pushed EUA prices below €70/t.
- The EU Commission may propose changes to free allocation or indicate upcoming changes to the MSR in the 2026 EU ETS Review, and the market may be in a holding pattern until policy clarity is given from Brussels. Moreover, continued political pushback from the Italian Prime Minister reinforces the bearish sentiment in the market
- However, stronger losses were limited by major European utilities warning EU leaders not to weaken the ETS, arguing that it would undermine investment, decarbonisation, and energy security, stating that the ETS is the backbone of Europe’s clean-energy transition.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight