Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Day-ahead gas rose 15.7% to 126.68p/th, owing to a breakdown in diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran across the week. US President Donald Trump announced that the ongoing ceasefire was “unbelievably weak” reinforcing perceptions that the blockade at the Strait of Hormuz will continue for an extended period of time. Similarly, day-ahead power rose 12.6% to £116.00/MWh, following a drop in wind generation, acting to bolster reliance on more expensive forms of fuelled generation. Gains across its gas counterpart fed into power prices across the week, as gas-fired generation still accounts for a large proportion of power generation across GB. Additionally, Hartlepool Reactor 1 was set to return from maintenance on 13 May; however, it is now expected to return on 20 May, with Torness Reactor 1 and Heysham 2 Reactor 8 still offline, limiting nuclear generation. June 26 gas was up 15.4% at 123.90p/th, and July 26 gas increased 15.8% to 123.00p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 5.6% on average. Both winter 26 and summer 27 gas increased 12.0% and 5.1% respectively, lifting to 123.28p/th and 88.00p/th. All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.3%. Both winter 26 and summer 27 expanded 6.6% and 1.0% respectively, rising to £100.75/MWh and £75.50/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 12.6% to £116.00/MWh, following a drop in wind generation increasing reliance on more expensive forms of fuelled generation.
- June 26 power climbed 12.0% to £103.00/MWh, and July 26 power increased 13.1% to £101.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q326 power moved 11.5% higher to £101.50/MWh.
- The annual October 26 contract rose 4.1% to £88.13/MWh, which was 13.5% higher than the same time last month (£77.63/MWh), and 22.8% higher than the same time last year (£71.78/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 12.5% to £108.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- June 26 peak power gained 10.6% to £102.00/MWh, and July 26 peak power increased 12.2% to £101.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 26 peak power contract rose 3.4% to £96.83/MWh, 10.1% lower than the same time last month (£87.93/MWh), and 2.68 higher than the same time last year (£94.30/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.3%.
- Winter 26 and summer 27 climbed 6.6% and 1.0% to £100.75/MWh and £75.50/MWh, respectively.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts rose last week, up 3.0% on average.
- Winter 26 and summer 27 peak power increased 6.9% and 1.7% to £119.75/MWh and £77.00/MWh, respectively.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Last week saw the return to bullish movements in the market, with Brent crude oil rising 1.4% to $106.18/bl.
- This comes as the lack of a clear US-Iran agreement continues to keep upside risks in place despite, high oil inventories in the US, strategic reserve releases, and weak demand.
- During the week, US President Donald Trump noted that the ceasefire between the US and Iran was in an “unbelievably weak” state, reinforcing market perceptions that the prospects for a ceasefire are weakening.
- The market also reacted to Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, in which Donald Trump reportedly noted the US may reconsider military options against Iran following the meeting.
- Regarding crude production, output from the OPEC group decreased by approximately 1.7mbpd in April 2026 compared to March due to attacks on energy infrastructure and restrictions to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Across the week, both EU and UK ETS carbon prices saw an increase as the correlation between the carbon markets and oil and gas increased compared to levels seen over previous weeks.
- UK ETS prices increased by 3.6% to average £51.87/t and EU ETS edged 0.3% higher to €75.80/t.
- Heightened tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz continues to push oil and gas prices higher due to the associated supply risk, which in turn pushes carbon prices up too.
- Similarly, carbon prices across Europe remain supported by weak hydro output across Norway and Sweden, with the hydro balance sitting at the lowest level seen in eight years
- This resulted in EU ETS carbon prices reaching €77.29/t on 11 May, the highest level seen since February 2026, with UK ETS carbon reaching £53.30/t on 11 May, also the highest level seen since February
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight