Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
All tracked gas and power contracts registered sharp gains in response to revised weather forecasts for the end of January and early February, which are anticipating a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, bringing significantly below-average temperatures to Europe and GB. Day-ahead gas rose 37.3% to 100.50p/th, following revised forecasts of a strong cold snap expected in GB, it is expected there will be much greater gas demand while gas storage stocks across Europe and GB continue to decrease. Day-ahead power rose 30.5% to £99.15/MWh, following its gas counterpart upwards, amid expectations of a strong spike in demand and tighter system supply margins. February 26 gas was up 32.7% at 97.28p/th, and March 26 gas increased 26.5% to 86.88p/th. All seasonal gas contracts increased last week, up by 5.5% on average, while both summer 26 and winter 26 gas increased 14.0% and 8.7% respectively, lifting to 73.48p/th and 75.10p/th. All seasonal power contracts registered gains last week, up on average by 5.7%, as summer 26 and winter 26 expanded 8.9% and 6.6% respectively, rising to £76.20/MWh and £80.50/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 30.5% to £99.15/MWh, following forecasts of a strong cold snap in GB in the coming fortnight, boosting demand and tightening system supply margins, coupled with higher near-term gas prices.
- February 26 power climbed 26.5% at £105.50/MWh and March 26 power increased 20.0% to £88.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q226 power moved 9.0% higher to £76.25/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract rose 7.7% to £78.35/MWh, 3.6% higher than the same time last year (£75.63/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 32.7% to £130.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- February 26 peak power gained 26.3% at £120.00/MWh, and March 26 peak power increased 17.3% to £95.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power rose 5.2% to £80.62/MWh.
- This is 4.36% higher than the same time last year (77.25/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts saw gains last week, up on average by 5.7%.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 expanded 8.9% and 6.6% respectively, rising to £76.20/MWh and £80.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts rose last week, up 5.0% on average.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 peak power increased 8.6% and 5.5% respectively, falling to £78.10/MWh and £95.50/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw gains week-on-week, averaging $64.72/bl over the reporting period.
- Brent crude oil continued with its recent trend of sharp price increases, reaching its highest level seen since October 2025 at $66.19/bl on 14 January as uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts weakened the dollar, alongside developments in Venezuela and Cuba that added to supply concerns.
- Trump announced that Cuba would no longer receive oil or financial support from Venezuela, heightening perceptions of a risk to global oil supply.
- Similarly, Trump announced that any countries trading with Iran would be subject to a 25% tariff when they trade with the U.S., further increasing market uncertainty.
- However, towards the end of the week, prices saw losses due to signs of rising U.S. crude inventories, with the American Petroleum Institute reporting that U.S. crude inventories rose by ~5.3 million barrels in the week commencing 5 January.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both UK and EU ETS prices trended bullishly through the reporting period, with the UK ETS rising by 4.7% to average £71.64/t, and the EU ETS lifting by 3.6% to average €91.41/t.
- Across the week, both EU and UK carbon prices continued to grow, reaching notably high levels as lower temperatures and reduced wind generation prompted higher reliance on more carbon-intensive forms of power generation.
- The EU ETS has increasingly diverged from oil and gas prices entering 2026, remaining elevated as regulatory market reform takes a greater hold when compared to movements across the commodity markets.
- As emission caps tighten and surplus carbon allowances are cancelled, EU ETS carbon prices are becoming tied to expectations surrounding long-term scarcity and not short-term price movements like it previously has been.
- Expectations of an upcoming Sudden Stratospheric Warming event across Europe will lead to higher prices out to the end of January as key demand centres increase their heating requirements.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight