Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most tracked power and gas contracts saw minor to moderate bullish movements, with the exception of the day-ahead power and gas contracts, both of which saw bearish movements due to shorter term weather trends. Day-ahead gas fell 1.9% to 103.00p/th, despite the volatility over the week due to colder weather, as strong wind generation acted to limit any bullish movement in short-term gas contracts. Day-ahead power fell 12.7% to £100.00/MWh, amid strong wind generation over the week, acting to limit stronger levels of gas-fired generation on the system, easing system supply margins. February 26 gas was up 1.3% at 103.85p/th, and March 26 gas increased 4.0% to 95.00p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 5.0% on average, while both summer 26 and winter 26 gas increased 5.8% and 6.6% respectively, lifting to 78.63p/th and 80.85p/th. Most seasonal power contracts registered gains last week, up on average by 0.9%, as summer 26 and winter 26 expanded 1.0% and 1.2% respectively, rising to £76.73/MWh and £81.75/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 12.7% to £100.00/MWh, following strong wind generation outturn over the week.
- February 26 power climbed 0.7% to £107.00/MWh and March 26 power increased 0.9% to £92.85/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q226 power moved 1.0% higher to £77.23/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract rose 1.1% to £79.24/MWh, 2.5% lower than the same time last year (£81.30/MWh).year (£75.40/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 8.2% to £112.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- February 26 peak power declined 1.3% to £123.40/MWh, and March 26 peak power increased 0.4% to £99.40/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power contract rose 0.9% to £81.47/MWh.
- This is 1.1% lower than the same time last year (82.40/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 0.9%.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 climbed 1.0% and 1.2% respectively, rising to £76.73/MWh and £81.75/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts saw gains last week, up 0.9% on average.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 peak power increased 1.2% and 1.0% respectively, rising to £78.50/MWh and £96.78/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- For the third week in a row, Brent crude oil continued its recent upward trend, rising 5.3% to average $68.27/t, reaching the highest level seen since July 2025 at $70.77/bl on 30 January, finding support from tightening sanctions on Iran and statements signaling the possibility of military action from the U.S.
- Moreover, extremely cold weather conditions disrupted crude production and exports from the Gulf Coast, while a weaker US dollar provided additional support.
- Similarly, a weaker U.S. dollar supported higher oil prices with the dollar index falling to its lowest level in nearly four years surrounding concerns over uncertainties in the U.S. economy.
- Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and concerns related to Trump’s trade and geopolitical policies continue to impact sentiment in the market.
- However, stronger gains were limited as the U.S. partially eased sanctions on Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), allowing certain transactions related to the sale and transportation of Venezuelan crude.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU and UK ETS carbon continued their bearish trends with EU ETS carbon decreasing 2.3% to €85.31/t and UK ETS carbon dropping 3.0% to £65.42/t.
- Losses across Europe were influenced by Germany cutting its GDP forecasts for the next two years as the economy continues to struggle after years of weak or no growth. This results in expectations of reduced demand across a key European demand centre, lowering prices.
- However, carbon prices remain highly volatile, influenced by geopolitical drivers due to its relationship with Brent crude and Dutch TTF prices, limiting stronger losses as the conflict in Iran raises gas prices.
- Across the week, the conflict in the Middle East drove higher selling pressure across market participants, leading to the losses seen.
- Additionally, developments to policy related to carbon dioxide removal may influence EU ETS prices across 2026. Current market analysis outlines that allowing nature-based removals in the EU ETS (this includes reforestation, wetland restoration, and soil management) may cause the price of allowances to drop by as much as 10%.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight