Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Last week, short-term gains were supported by milder weather and fluctuating wind outturn, while long-term contracts saw bullish support due to geopolitical uncertainty with the escalation of tensions and conflict between US and Iran. Day-ahead gas rose 3.9% to 78.45p/th, predominantly driven by geopolitics, rather than by underlying fundamentals, after US–Iran peace talks collapsed. Over the weekend, conflict began in the Middle East between the US and Iran, alongside other states in the region. The Strait of Hormuz lies within the region and is a key global passage for oil and gas, as a result, the Strait has been brought to a standstill. As wind output fell and mild temperatures kept demand relatively steady, day‑ahead power rose 8.3% to £73.58/MWh, driven by increased reliance on CCGT units and therefore more expensive fuel‑based generation. However, these gains were limited as wind generation peaked at 52.0% of the generation mix on 26 February before dropping below seasonal levels into the weekend. [JD1.1]March 26 gas was up 2.0% at 77.88p/th, and April 26 gas increased 3.0% to 78.20p/th. All seasonal gas contracts registered gains last week, up by 1.6% on average, while both summer 26 and winter 26 gas increased 3.1% and 1.6% respectively, lifting to 76.43p/th and 80.50p/th. All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 0.7%, as summer 26 and winter 26 expanded 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, rising to £70.50/MWh and £75.73/MWh[J.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 8.3% to £73.58/MWh, following a drop in wind generation over the weekend.
- March 26 power climbed 1.3% at £74.50/MWh, and April 26 power increased 2.9% to £72.03/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q226 power moved 2.8% higher to £70.70/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract rose 1.3% to £73.12/MWh, which was 7.7% lower than the same time last month (£79.24/MWh), and 1.4% lower than the same time last year (£74.18/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 11.8% to £85.00/MWh, following drops in market fundamentals and rise in geopolitical uncertainty
- March 26 peak power gained 0.7% at £79.90/MWh, and April 26 peak power increased 2.1% to £71.83/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power rose 1.3% to £74.50/MWh, 8.6% lower than the same time last month (£81.47/MWh),
- This is 12.51 lower than the same time last year (£85.15/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 0.7%.
- Both summer 26 and winter 26 expanded 2.2% and 0.4% respectively, rising to £70.50/MWh and £75.73/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts saw gains last week, up 1.2% on average.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 peak power increased 2.2% and 1.2% respectively, rising to £71.33/MWh and £89.30/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw a small upward trend over the reporting period, rising 1.1% to average $72.65/t.
- Brent crude oil saw prices decrease at the start of the week, before jumping sharply on Thursday and Friday, ending the week at $72.65/bl, the highest price since July 2025.
- The lack of a deal between the US and Iran following the latest round of nuclear talks supported prices towards the end of the week.
- Price rises were tempered sightly by increased supply from Saudi Arabia and reports that UAE is set to export more oil in April.
- The US Energy Information Administration reported that U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 16mn barrels during the week ending 20 February, providing a slight bearishness to prices.
- The combination of trade uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and concerns over global growth keep oil prices under pressure, with volatility likely to persist in the near term.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU and UK ETS carbon continued their bearish trends with EU ETS carbon decreasing 4.6% to €69.92/t and UK ETS carbon falling 2.7% to £45.97/t.
- Both EU and UK ETS prices saw steady declines throughout the week. EU ETS prices dropped by over €3.00/t week-on-week to €69.92/t. This marked the second time in two weeks that the price had fallen below €70.00/t, after not seeing such lows since the end of July 2025.
- Similarly, UK ETS prices fell to an 11-month low of £45.16/t on 26 February, ending the week at £45.97/t. These prices were pushed lower by calls from the Italian government to suspend the scheme ahead of its review later this year.
- In addition, Italy announced plans to compensate gas-fired power stations for their ETS costs. Gas accounts for around 40% of Italy’s power mix, and such a move could impact gas demand and prices on the continent by enabling these plants to generate during times which would otherwise be too expensive if they were liable for emission costs.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight