Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Overall, a bearish trend was seen across short-term and long-term gas and power markets, particularly driven by a perception of a stabilisation of the current conflict between the US and Iran, and potential re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, developments over the weekend have threatened that outlook. Day-ahead gas fell 4.3% to 106.02p/th, following warmer weather across GB, reduced gas-fired generation and stable UK Continental Shelf flows. As a result, day-ahead NBP gas prices fell to 104.00p/th on 15 April, the lowest price seen since 27 February. While elevated, this is the lowest price seen since before the war broke out. Day-ahead power fell 7.0% to £99.29/MWh, particularly due to stronger wind outturn seen in the week’s latter half. Wind generation accounted for 53.7% of the generation mix on 15 April, the highest level seen across the week. May 26 gas was down 10.9% at 98.03p/th, and June 26 gas decreased 13.3% to 93.85p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts registered losses last week, down by 4.7% on average, while both winter 26 and summer 27 gas dropped 10.1% and 5.3% respectively, subsiding to 99.30p/th and 78.00p/th. Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 3.0%, as winter 26 power decreased 3.3% to £88.00/MWh, while summer 27 fell 4.6% to £67.25/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 7.0% to £99.29/MWh, largely driven by system oversupply in the weeks latter half, due to stronger wind outturn.
- May 26 power slipped 4.7% to £82.00/MWh and June 26 power decreased 6.4% to £85.45/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q326 power moved 5.6% lower to £84.25/MWh.
- The annual October 26 contract lost 3.9% to £77.63/MWh, 7.3% higher than the same time last year (£72.38/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 4.2% to £92.93/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- May 26 peak power declined 6.8% to £82.25/MWh, and June 26 peak power decreased 8.9% to £85.38/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 26 peak power contract rose 2.6% to £87.93/MWh.
- This is 7.7% lower than the same time last year (£95.25/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 3.0%.
- Winter 26 power decreased 3.3% to £88.00/MWh, while summer 27 fell 4.6% to £67.25/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 2.5% on average.
- Winter 26 and summer 27 peak power dropped 4.4% and 3.9% respectively, falling to £105.15/MWh and £68.25/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw losses across the reporting period, falling 5.8% to average $95.84bl. Prices started the week at $100.28/bl before dropping to $88.91/bl by Friday, the lowest price seen since the start of March.
- Higher prices at the start of the week were supported by concerns of prolonged disruptions to global oil supply as US President Donald Trump announced on 12 April that the US will blockade “any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz”.
- However, as we moved through the week, negotiations between the US and Iran helped alleviate supply concerns among market participants, following remarks by Donald Trump that the conflict appears “close to over” and that US-Iran talks could resume in Pakistan within two days.
- Crude oil production by the OPEC group fell by around 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026 compared with February, and global oil supply recorded the largest monthly decline on record, falling by 10.1 million bpd in March due to the impact of the war.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both UK & EU ETS carbon prices moved higher, rising 12.6% and 3.4%, to £47.79/t and €74.68/t, respectively.
- Across the market, both EU and UK ETS saw gains across the week, highlighting how carbon prices have decoupled from the gas markets, and now are more likely to trade in relation to equities, mirroring the movements seen across European and global stock markets.
- Across the week, higher prices across EU ETS carbon were supported due to a lighter auction schedule following the absence of the Polish auction on 15 April.
- Similarly, we continue to see that compliance-driven auction premiums support higher prices, but stronger gains are limited by uncertainty surrounding EU ETS developments and cautious sentiment from those trading in the market.
- Despite this, UK ETS carbon prices reached £51.20/t by the end of the week, the highest level seen since 10 February as wind generation is set to remain subdued in the week ahead.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight