Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Day ahead power fell week on week, despite most power and gas contracts rising through the reporting period, due to forecasts of lower wind generation, prompting increased demand for gas-for-power. Day-ahead gas rose 4.3% to 73.25p/th, following a mild yet calm forecast ahead, with low wind generation resulting in the need for fuelled generation. Day-ahead power fell 1.1% to £79.6/MWh, with low demand due to above seasonal average temperatures last week. January 26 gas was up 2.9% at 74.78p/th, and February 26 gas increased 1.5% to 72.93p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 0.9% on average, while both summer 26 and winter 26 gas increased 1.6% and 0.5% respectively, lifting to 65.53p/th and 71.05p/th. All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 2.8%, as summer 26 and winter 26 increased by 3.9% and 2.5% respectively, rising to £69.50/MWh and £75.50/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 1.1% to £79.60/MWh, following warmer weather conditions and therefore reduced power demand.
- January 26 power climbed 4.1% to £85.50/MWh and February 26 power increased 4.5% to £81.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q126 power moved 3.9% higher to £79.90/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract rose 3.2% to £72.50/MWh, 1.2% higher than the same time last year (£71.63/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 5.4% to £91.00/MWh, counteracting its baseload counterpart due to lower wind generation at various points throughout the week leading to bullishly trending peak electricity prices.
- January 26 peak power gained 3.5% to £103.00/MWh, and February 26 peak power increased 1.8% to £98.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power contract rose 2.2% to £76.82/MWh.
- This is 4.16 higher than the same time last year (£73.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts rose last week, up on average by 2.8%.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 increased 3.9% and 2.5% respectively, rising to £69.50/MWh and £75.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 2.2% on average.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 peak power increased 2.7% and 1.7% respectively, rising to £71.28/MWh and £91.80/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw a decrease week-on-week, with prices falling to a low of $58.80/bl on 16 December; as U.S. President Donald Trump said he held extensive talks with European leaders on the Ukraine-Russia war, noting that the diplomatic process was proceeding in a “cautious but positive” manner.
- Additionally, tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela didn’t lift prices as strongly as expected, as no material disruption to oil flows has been reported so far. This came after Trump announced a “total and complete” blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela.
- Across 2026, the IEA expects that global oil demand will rise from 830,000 barrels per day to approximately 860,000 bpd. While this is an increase, it is expected that global oil supply will grow much faster, by another 2.4million bpd in 2026, driven by non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both UK and EU ETS prices trended bullishly through the reporting period, notably the UK ETS rising by 10.2% week on week as we shift from the Dec-2025 contract to the Dec-2026 contract price.
- Similarly in Europe wind generation fell, resulting in an increase in demand for EU Carbon Credits, used to offset emissions from fuelled generation, including coal which fell in price through the reporting period incentivising use.
- Looking ahead, 31 December will see the submission deadlines for high emission facilities in the EU to submit climate-neutrality plans, expecting to use EU ETS to facilitate their plans. This may increase demand for Carbon Credits through to the New Year.
- Additionally, heading into 2026, the UK ETS will expand to cover the maritime sector for domestic voyages and emissions within UK ports, which when coupled with an overall reduction of carbon allowances available may continue to influence prices bullishly.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight