Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Day-ahead gas fell 10.4% to 102.75p/th, as the market continues to price in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran signed on 18 June. Additionally, above-average temperatures across the week led to a weakening of heating demand across the country, alongside strong production from the UK Continental Shelf as maintenance remains limited. Day-ahead power rose 24.6% to £97.71/MWh, despite day-ahead power contracts recording sustained losses across the reporting period, starting the week at its highest level of £108.86/MWh before ending the week at £97.71/MWh, prices saw gains due to an expected decrease in wind generation for 22 June, coupled with reductions to nuclear availability, increasing reliance on expensive fuelled generation. July 26 gas was down 8.9% at 101.48p/th, and August 26 gas decreased 9.2% at 101.75p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 3.7% on average, while both winter 26 and summer 27 gas dropped 8.3% and 3.8% respectively, subsiding to 107.28p/th and 81.30p/th. Most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.1%, as winter 26 power decreased 3.7% to £98.00/MWh, while summer 27 expanded 3.7% to £77.50/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 24.6% to £97.71/MWh, following an elevated price at the week’s beginning, followed by forecasts of low wind outturn and lower nuclear availability.at the weeks end.
- July 26 power slipped 3.0% at £94.85/MWh and August 26 power decreased 4.7% to £91.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q326 power moved 4.2% lower to £93.60/MWh.
- The annual October 26 contract lost 0.6% to £87.75/MWh, 14.1% higher than the same time last year (£76.93/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 5.6% to £114.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- July 26 peak power declined 3.6% at £94.00/MWh, and August 26 peak power decreased 5.7% to £91.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 26 peak power fell 2.6% to £94.24/MWh
- This is 6.2% lower than the same time last year (£100.50/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.1%.
- Winter 26 power decreased 3.7% to £98.00/MWh, while summer 27 expanded 3.7% to £77.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 1.9% on average.
- Winter 26 gas dropped 8.3% to £110.00/MWh, while summer 27 peak power increased 0.6% to £78.23/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw bearish fundamentals last week, dropping 12.5% to $80.26/bl, registering strong losses over the week, decreasing to its lowest level since early March 2026.
- Lower prices were influenced by optimism over an initial US-Iran agreement aimed at ending the war and restoring tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- However, concerns that the resumption of supply through the Strait may take longer than expected limited further price decreases as shipowners will require stronger confidence that security risks are limited before operations can fully resume at pre-conflict levels.
- Outside the Middle East, supply growth continues to be led by the US, with US oil production reaching a record 22 million bpd in May, while total crude and petroleum product exports climbed to an all-time high of 13.1 million bpd according to the International Energy Agency’s latest oil market report.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both EU and UK ETS carbon prices saw gains. UK ETS prices increased by 6.8% to average £59.53/t and EU ETS rose 3.7% to €79.96/t.
- Opposing the movements seen across the previous week, both EU and UK ETS carbon prices saw gains, as the summer heatwave impacting GB and Europe acts to strongly increase overall cooling demand, and thus demand for more carbon intensive forms of power generation.
- Likewise, expectations of a UK-EU carbon market convergence also supported prices, with UK ETS carbon rising in response.
- With the expectation in the market, prices have begun to reflect the convergence ahead of confirmation of the terms, narrowing the price differential between the two schemes.
- As a result, UK ETS carbon prices reached the highest level seen since February 2026 at £60.59/t on 19 June, while EU ETS carbon also rose to a four-month high of €80.58/t on19 June.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on-Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight