Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Short-term losses were supported by warmer weather, stronger wind outturn, while long-term contracts saw minor bullish support due to nuclear availability remaining highly constrained into the future, increasing reliance on more expensive CCGT. Day-ahead gas fell 5.9% to 75.50p/th, following a combination of milder weather forecasts and a spike in wind generation outturn. As temperatures continue to rise moving into spring, GB’s gas system supply margins will continue to ease into March, placing bearish pressure on short-term contracts. Day-ahead power fell 12.4% to £67.93/MWh, with warmer weather forecasts and a sharp rise in wind output towards the weeks end, easing domestic demand, weighing bearishly on prices. Wind generation peaked at 58.6% of the generation mix on 22 February, remaining consistently high over the weekend. March 26 gas was up 0.7% at 76.35p/th, and April 26 gas increased 2.6% to 75.85p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 2.3% on average, while both summer 26 and winter 26 gas increased 2.9% and 3.3% respectively, lifting to 74.15p/th and 79.25p/th. All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.8%, as summer 26 and winter 26 expanded 3.3% and 3.3% respectively, rising to £69.00/MWh and £75.40/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 12.4% to £67.93/MWh, following strong wind and rising temperatures.
- March 26 power slipped 0.8% to £73.55/MWh and April 26 power increased 1.7% to £70.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q226 power moved 2.7% higher to £68.78/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract rose 3.3% to £72.20/MWh, 3.3% lower than the same time last year (£74.63/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 9.8% to £76.00/MWh, in opposition to its baseload counterpart.
- March 26 peak power declined 1.3% to £79.35/MWh, and April 26 peak power increased 1.2% to £70.35/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power contract rose 1.9% to £73.58/MWh.
- This is 3.2% lower than the same time last year (£76.00/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.8%.
- Both summer 26 and winter 26 climbed 3.3%, rising to £69.00/MWh and £75.40/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 2.0% on average.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 peak power increased 2.9% and 1.0% respectively, rising to £69.80/MWh and £88.20/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw a small upward trend over the reporting period, rising 1.1% to average $69.55/t.
- Brent crude registered a peak at $71.86/bl on 19 February, the highest level seen since July 2025, as the U.S. continued an unprecedented military buildup in Europe and the Middle East, preparing for a potential strike if Iran fails to respond to demands regarding its nuclear program.
- The largest concern in the oil market is the potential disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, an area that handles approximately one-third of global seaborne oil exports.
- Similarly, the Energy Information Administration reported on 19 February that U.S. commercial crude inventories decreased by 2.1% during the week ending 13 February, with inventories falling by ~9 million barrels when the market had expected an increase of ~1.7 million barrels.
- The combination of trade uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and concerns over global growth keep oil prices under pressure, with volatility likely to persist in the near term.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU and UK ETS carbon continued their bearish trends with EU ETS carbon decreasing 7.3% to €71.06/t and UK ETS carbon falling 6.3% to £47.05/t.
- However, below-average temperatures across Europe and market adjustments to political uncertainty around CBAM exemptions in the second half of the week supported higher prices.
- EU ETS carbon prices started the week at €68.88/t, the lowest price seen since July 2025 before rising to €73.30/t by the end of the week, while UK ETS carbon started the week at £46.44/t before reaching its weekly peak of £47.75/t on 18 February.
- The seven-month EU ETS low was influenced by calls to reform the ETS, alongside policy uncertainty prompting funds to reduce net-long positions. Moreover, criticism from German Chancellor Friedrich Merz triggered a sharp EUA sell-off at the start of the week as he clarified that the scheme needs improvements.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight