Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most power and gas contracts rose last week, finding influence from geopolitical tensions between Isreal and Iran and above-average temperatures acting to increase demand for gas-fired generation. As a result, day-ahead gas rose 7.0% to 96.83p/th. However, toward the end of the week, power prices fell in anticipation of cooler temperatures and high wind output and consequently, day-ahead power fell 52.2% to £41.95/MWh. July 25 gas was up 8.3% at 96.05p/th, and August 25 gas increased 9.8% to 98.70p/th. Moreover, all seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 4.7% on average, with both winter 25 and summer 26 gas increasing 9.4% and 7.0% respectively, lifting to 109.23p/th and 92.00p/th. Most seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.1%, as winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 4.1% and 2.6% respectively, rising to £94.50/MWh and £77.70/MWh. Longer-dated contracts were driven higher by increasing tensions across the Middle East, with concerns around a restriction to transport through the Strait of Hormuz elevating prices, due to its status as a key waterway for the seaborne transportation of oil and LNG.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 52.2% to £41.95/MWh, following strong week-on-week losses stemming from strong wind generation and anticipated temperature reductions into the following week.
- July 25 power climbed 0.5% to £81.65/MWh, and August 25 power increased 3.1% to £83.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q325 power moved 2.5% higher to £85.35/MWh.
- The annual October 25 contract rose 3.4% to £86.10/MWh, 11.3% higher than the same time last year (£77.38/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 32.5% to £53.00/MWh, following expected levels of high wind output over the weekend coupled with lower temperatures reducing demand for carbon intensive cooling appliances.
- July 25 peak power gained 1.7% at £84.65/MWh, and August 25 peak power increased 2.2% to £86.35/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power rose 2.7% to £97.02/MWh.
- This is 2.8% lower than the same time last year (99.85/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Seasonal power contracts rose last week, up on average by 2.1%.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 4.1% and 2.6% respectively, rising to £94.50/MWh and £77.70/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts increased last week, up 2.7% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power increased 3.4% and 3.1% respectively, rising to £109.85/MWh and £80.70/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Following the trend of price increases seen across the past four-weeks, the average price of Brent crude oil rose to $75.22/bl, the highest weekly average seen since February, with prices also reaching the highest level seen since January at $78.40/bl on 19 June
- Across the weekend, we saw developments in the Iranian conflict following strikes by the U.S. on nuclear facilities, with potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz impacting Asian and European trade flows, raising freight costs
- As a result, a prolonged blockage has the potential to push oil prices above $100/bl, prices not seen since 2022
- Moreover, prolonged conflict acts to dampen global growth expectations, during a time of economic uncertainty stemming from the ongoing tariffs put in place by U.S. President Donald Trump
- The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its Oil Market Report, highlighting that the global oil demand is forecast to increase by 720kb/d in 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, the IEA expects growth to 740kb/d, held back by a challenging economic outlook and the increased uptake of clean energy technologies
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Despite recording slight losses, carbon prices remained elevated this week finding strong influence from conflicts in the Middle East
- EU carbon prices peaked at €75.18/t on 16 June, with concerns over a disruption of LNG supply via Egypt to Europe
- Geopolitical volatility supports an increased demand for EU ETS allowances, however the extent at which gas market disruption could affect carbon prices is limited due to carbon recently decoupling from gas
- In addition, concerns over the reliability of French nuclear output continue to support a bullish market for EU carbon prices, with additional concerns that high river temperatures in France could impact nuclear production over the coming week. Furthermore, both UK and EU carbon prices were supported by significantly above-average temperatures across the continent, which lead to increased demand for carbon-intensive cooling appliances
- Looking ahead, concerns around French nuclear reliability over the summer and signals from the EU on potential CBAM expansion have bullish impacts on future market sentiment
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
